Population on the move: Montanans follow opportunities for education, jobs, and happiness.
My grandparents moved to Montana before the Great Depression--my father's parents from Nebraska, my mother's from Virginia. They settled in Fergus and Teton counties respectively, and raised their families on farms there.When she graduated high school, my mother left Montana for college in Colorado. My father left, too, albeit to serve in the U.S. Navy during World War II. Both eventually ended up at what was then known as Montana State University in Missoula, where they met and married.
After college, may parents moved to southwestern Montana, first to Sheridan, later to Wise River. They raised a pair each of boys and girls, moving over the years to Grangeville, Idaho, and finally to Elko, Nev. When I graduated from high school, I also left home for school in Utah, where I married and moved to Missoula. One of my sisters went to college in Boise, Idaho, married and lived there for a few years, then moved to Sandpoint. My parents moved, too--this time to Reno, Nev. My youngest sister moved with my parents to Reno, and later came to college in Missoula, where she lives today. My brother remained in Elko for a time, before following his girlfriend to Boulder, Colo. They eventually married.
After retirement, my parents returned to Montana, to the Bitterroot Valley, where they continue to enjoy themselves. And now a new generation is starting to wander the West: My son graduated high school last year and headed to Boise for college. Who knows where he will land.
My family's mobility is not an unusual phenomenon in Montana; I offer our story, in fact, because it is the story of many families. Ours is a population on the move, following opportunities for education, jobs, and happiness into, out of, and across the state. Just think of your family. Were you born in Montana? Did you live outside Montana for any length of time? Have your children left the state for college or jobs?
At the Bureau of Business and Economic Research, we compiled migration histories for a random sample of Montanans, and found the median number of moves to be four. Most moves were triggered by high school graduation or marriage, although there were a variety of factors influencing whether an individual stayed or moved away. Limited economic opportunities prompted many moves, as did a perceived adverse social climate or the lack of basic community services. Family ties and Montana's comfortable and scenic surroundings held onto others. What residents like most about our state are its "place qualities," including its rural nature.
The BBER also conducted two major surveys over the past two years, the first a survey of northern Great Plains residents for a symposium on depopulation issues, the other an attempt to estimate the number of Montanans available to take new or different jobs. The Montana Poll, the Bureau's quarterly survey of households statewide, provided yet another source of mobility data.
Here is a snapshot of what we learned:
Nearly half of the Montanans we surveyed were lifelong residents of their community (Figure 1). About a third had moved at some point, but had not moved for the past five years and were very unlikely to move again. (And when we talk of moving, we mean a move from one community to another, not a move within town.) Roughly 80 percent of our state's residents have not shown a tendency to move.
Central to the stay-at-home predisposition of many Montanans are our communities--the matrix of families who live near to one another, schools that both educate children and serve as a town's social center, churches and other groups that bring people together, healthy businesses that provide jobs and services, and well-run governments that deliver essential services such as fire and police protection. The interrelationships of these elements of a community affect a household's mobility. Do we stay or do we go?
About 9 percent of our respondents had moved within the state of Montana during the past five years. About 6 percent had moved into the state from elsewhere, and another 4 percent had come home to Montana; thus our finding that 90 percent of respondents had lived in Montana continuously over the past five years.
Mobility, as my own family's story illustrates, is greatly influenced by age. About half of those interviewed who were more than 60 years old had never moved; another 10 percent had not moved recently. About 40 percent of the respondents between 30 and 59 years of age showed little mobility. But nearly 80 percent of those under age 30 had moved in the last few years. Of those who had moved, about a third relocated within the state, a third moved to Montana from out-of-state, and a third moved back to Montana.
So who will be here five years from now?
Recently, the Bureau of Business and Economic Research started asking survey respondents their likelihood of moving over the next five years (Figure 2). So far, we've found that respondents over age 30 show little inclination to leave Montana. More than 80 percent of those over 30 said they would probably remain in the state. Roughly half of those under 30 said they would probably stay, and another 15 percent said there's a 50-50 chance they'll remain. But slightly more than one-third of those under age 30 said it is unlikely they will still live in the same community five years from now. About 45 percent of our under-30 respondents said they plan to leave Montana.
Since the action was in that younger crowd, we took a closer look at that group. About half of our respondents under age 30 planned to leave Montana, including young people in the relatively prosperous Billings, Bozeman, and Helena areas. About 40 percent of the young people in southeastern Montana--a more rural region--planned to leave. Many of the young people there are American Indians; their ties to family and community are strong, even though there are severe economic shortcomings. A similar number of young people in Flathead County planned to leave in the coming years; only about a third of Missoula County's young people said they will leave.
But why do so many of our young people plan to leave? About 40 percent mentioned the need to improve their economic lot (Figure 3). About 30 percent said they were going to school or finishing school. Most troubling were the one in five who said they just wanted to get away.
It's not aimless wandering, though. The young people who planned to leave had definite destinations in mind, almost always to places "up the urban hierarchy." Young people in Jordan wanted to move to Miles City, where the young people planned moves to Billings, where young people were en route to Denver or Minneapolis. Those in Chinook were headed for Havre, Havre for Great Falls, Great Falls for Minneapolis. Dillon's young people were bound for Butte, Butte for Missoula, Missoula for Seattle. Western Montana respondents overwhelmingly mentioned the Seattle-Portland area or a warmer climate as destinations of choice. Eastern Montana respondents listed warmer climates and western Montana. Of the young people planning moves to eastern Montana, the primary
destinations were Billings and Great Falls.
About 30 percent of the younger people surveyed mentioned other cities in the United States: frequently Denver, Minneapolis, and the East Coast. They wanted to experience big-city life, as young people have for decades really. We expect our children to leave for a period of time. Gladly, our surveys show that half of the people moving to Montana from other states were Montanans at some earlier point in their lives. So it's important to know what draws people to our communities--what characteristics we need to preserve and build upon so they'll come back home someday.
And why do some young people stay in Montana? More times than not, it's because their family is nearby and the family connection is strong (Figure 4). However, with the aging of Montana's population, particularly in rural areas, those ties will loosen or be lost. One in five respondents said they were staying in Montana for jobs. About 15 percent said Montana's just such a nice place to live that they didn't want to leave; nearly all of these respondents intended to stay in the state for the foreseeable future. Still others were staying in state for schooling, then planned to leave.
The remainder of our respondents cited their affection for Montana's rural character and natural amenities; almost a quarter of the respondents under age 30 mentioned the importance of a rural atmosphere and scenic surroundings. Outdoor recreation was cited by about 15 percent, while 10 percent mentioned their family ties and that Montana's % nice place to live." Economic opportunity was not a factor; there was no difference between those who planned to leave and those who said they were staying (Figure 5).
What do young people dislike about Montana? Overwhelmingly, the under-30 crowd said they dislike the "adverse social climate" (Figure 6). There aren't enough social outlets for residents under the age of 21. They are too young for the bars and too old for high-school events. And with bars and schools such dominating social institutions in many Montana towns, this age group is essentially excluded from the fun. Even in the larger urban areas--Billings, Great Falls, and Helena--the adverse social climate was the chief source of discontent. I sometimes use the world "social Siberia" to describe the adverse social climate, although that has caused at least a few misunderstandings. Once, an irate talk-show listener in North Dakota called during an interview and told me in no uncertain terms that North Dakota was not a communist state.
Also considered part of the adverse social climate, according to our respondents:
"Everyone knows what everyone else is doing."
"The town fathers don't like young people."
"Small-town politics."
Twelve percent of respondents said the quickening pace of growth in some parts of the state is a negative; these respondents generally lived in more prosperous parts of Montana. A similar percentage mentioned the lack of economic opportunities; they tended to come from less prosperous areas. Adverse climate conditions--the cold and wind--were mentioned by about 10 percent of the young people.
We also asked people under age 30 why they moved to the community where they now live. Better economic opportunity and schooling were the predominant reasons, with nearly all of the respondents living in the faster-growing parts of Montana (Figure 7). We found very few young people who had recently moved to slower-growing regions.
So what would it take to convince those who recently moved within Montana to return home? "Hell freezing over" and other similar cliches were mentioned by about half of our in-state movers, particularly among those who now live in Missoula, Helena and Billings. About one in five said they would move home to deal with a family emergency or tragedy--sick or dying parents, a divorce and the like. On the other hand, about a quarter of those interviewed said a good-paying job might entice them to return home, although these respondents were not originally from rural eastern Montana.
So what have we learned by talking with our state's younger residents? What are the lessons? First, we must be mindful that young people consistently said they liked the rural character, natural amenities, and outdoor recreation opportunities in their home communities. Any economic development efforts that detract from these characteristics could influence our children's willingness to return to Montana. In our survey of northern Great Plains residents, the smell and pollution from factory farms was one of the reasons young people left home.
Realize, too, that many small towns in Montana are disappearing, and that efforts to keep them viable will be futile. A growing number of Montana counties have more deaths than births each year, a phenomenon North Dakota Sen. Byron Dorgan calls "Four Funerals and a Wedding." Without new young people in our communities, schools will close--and schools are the glue that keep communities intact.
Finally, we've got to recognize that half our children are going to leave anyway. That's what children do. What we must do is to make sure they leave with good feelings toward their hometown and state, so they'll want to come back to Montana to raise their own children--and our grandchildren.
Figure 1 Mobility of Respondents Lifelong resident 49% No recent move 32% Moved within state 9% Moved from out-of-state 6% Returned to Montana 4% Source: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of Montana-Missoula, 2002. Note: Table made form a pie chart.
James T Sylvester is an economist at The University of Montana's Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
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| Author: | Sylvester, James T. |
|---|---|
| Publication: | Montana Business Quarterly |
| Geographic Code: | 1U8MT |
| Date: | Jun 22, 2003 |
| Words: | 2113 |
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