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World cotton outlook.

World cotton consumption by textile mills is expected to rise to a new record level of 19.3 million tons in 1991-92. Cotton consumption fell slightly in 1990-91, to 18.8 million tons, from 18.9 million tons in 1989-90.

Production and mill consumption of cotton were closely balanced in 1990-91, and there was little change in the level of world stocks. As a result, prices were stable. Somewhat lower prices are expected this season as world cotton production rises to a new world record of 20.1 million tons, surpassing the previous mark of 19.2 million tons reached in 1984-85.

World cotton consumption by textile mills is also expected to rise to a new record level of 19.3 million tons in 1991-92. Cotton consumption fell slightly in 1991-91, to 18.8 million tons, from 18.9 million tons in 1989-90. There was a small increase in world stocks of cotton last year, and a 700,000-ton increases is expected over the course of this season. With further increase in production in 1992-93, world stocks might rise to 7.55 million tons by August 1, 1993. Changing levels of stocks of cotton are a key determinant of world cotton prices. However it is important to put stock rises in perspective. Relative to the growing level of world cotton consumption, stocks (outside Mainland China) will rise from 4.4 months to use to 4.7 months of use. Even the increase to 5.2 months of use currently anticipated during the 1992-93 season - which is still quite a long time away - is significantly below the 6.7 months of use that stocks represented at the end of the 1985-86 season.
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Title Annotation:Global Outlook
Publication:Economic Review
Date:Feb 1, 1992
Words:281
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