Well worth taking chance on Amenable; ON WEDNESDAY.
MOST people have switched their focus to the jumps, but I can't quite get out of Flat mode and it's the all-weather action at Southwell and Kempton that has attracted my attention today.
At Southwell, both Take Cover and Amenable are of obvious interest in the 6f handicap (3.20) on their return to the Fibresand. Take Cover has had excuses on his last two starts (raced too freely up in trip; outclassed in Listed company) but he looked a useful sort in the making when winning his first four starts, including his first three over this course and distance, and he's still on a fair mark.
He could be the one, but I'm going to take a chance on Amenable, as he's been so inconsistent in recent years that he probably won't get much love and will go off a nice price again - his last two wins have come at 16-1 and 20-1. On his day he's capable of winning off today's mark, he's 2-2 on Fibresand and his rider Andrew Mullen has won on him twice before.
While his draw out in stall 12 isn't ideal, I don't see too many in the race who want to force the issue (stablemate Greenhead High and the down-in-trip Scottish Lake appear the other candidates to lead), so he might just be able to get a prominent position early and overcome it.
The highlight of the card at Kempton is the Betdaq Mobile Apps Handicap (5.25), and judged on her performance here 13 days ago it's going to take a good one to beat the Godolphin filly Ihtifal. She started her career running over a mile, but dropping back to sprinting has been the making of her. She may have her quirks (she needs to be ponied to the start and has worn earplugs) but she has plenty of ability.
Last time out over 6f she ran a cracker, pinging the gates and getting to the front from her outside stall before setting a scorching pace which saw those who tried to keep tabs with her dropping away late on. She couldn't quite sustain her effort to the line, but she set up the more patiently ridden Capone to come through and clock a course record.
She has been put up 3lb by the handicapper, but that's not a concern as she drops back to 5f for the first time today and promises to be even better suited by this distance. Being drawn in stall three means she shouldn't have too much trouble getting to the front and, with the Polytrack having been decompacted to a depth of 75mm since the last meeting, it's possible there will be an advantage racing on the pace tonight.
I've been waiting for Ghur to turn up on the AW, and was very tempted to put her up for the nursery (7.25), but the terrible record of stall one over a mile has put me off.
She's a fascinating contender, though, having been handicapped solely on three starts in soft/heavy ground in the north. She's out of a mare whose finest moment came when taking a Listed race at Ripon on fast ground, and her sire Hard Spun has a 26 per cent strike-rate with his runners on Polytrack, so there's every reason to believe she could step up markedly on her previous efforts now she goes handicapping on a decent surface, especially off such a lowly mark.
However, three winners from stall one in 91 races of ten or more runners over this trip this year is a poor return, and sometimes it's best just to Today's bets Amenable 3.20 Southwell 1pt win Ihtifal 5.25 Kempton 1pt win
Saeed Bin Suroor: trains Ihtifal