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United States : CBO's Long-Term Social Security Projections: Changes Since 2017 and Comparisons With the Social Security Trustees' Projections.

Each year, CBO updates its projections of the Social Security systems finances to incorporate newly available data and information from the research community. The agency also updates its models to incorporate improvements in methods and feedback on its analytical approach. CBOs latest longterm budget projections were published in June 2018.

Comparison With CBOs Previous Projections

CBOs June 2018 projections indicate a slight improvement in the Social Security systems financial outlook compared with the previous years projections:

The projected 75-year actuarial balance, a commonly used measure of the systems financial condition, has not changed as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since last year, remaining at ?1.5 percent of GDP (that is, a deficit of 1.5 percent). As a percentage of taxable payroll, the projected 75-year actuarial balance has improved slightly from ?4.5 percent to ?4.4 percent (see table below).

Changes to projections of three key inputs have improved the Social Security systems projected finances: the share of earnings that is subject to Social Security payroll taxes, the labor force participation rate, and interest rates.

Those improvements have been partially offset by including an additional year of deficit, 2092, in the calculation of the actuarial balance. Technical changes also collectively worsen the 75-year outlook.

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Publication:Mena Report
Date:Dec 11, 2018
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