Understanding the pitfalls of behavioral finance.
For these reasons, many investors are now reevaluating their strategies, reassessing their personal tolerance for risk, revisiting their asset allocation strategy and rethinking their long-term financial plans.
In order to make sound decisions in this environment, investors should be aware of their own psychological blind spots. These can lead all of us to make persistently poor financial choices--errors that over time can do significant damage to our portfolios.
Traditional financial theory assumes all investment decisions are made rationally, based on the best available information. In theory, the result is an efficient market--one in which prices accurately reflect fundamentals, such as earnings and interest rates.
However, it's not always easy to reconcile financial theory with financial reality. Investors often appear determined to ignore the fundamentals, both in bidding stock prices up and creating "bubbles" only to watch them fall--and often fall dramatically as we have recently witnessed.
It's not that investors are totally irrational, but rather that their thinking can be influenced by mental biases. These quirks can lead them to make choices that appear intuitively correct, but produce poor performance.
Some examples include:
* Investors generally assume they know more than they actually do. They also tend to remember previous investment decisions in ways that exaggerate their own foresight This can lead to overly aggressive trading and a reluctance to admit--and correct--mistakes.
* Financial experts often advise investors to take their entire portfolio into account when making investment decisions. Yet many investors unconsciously divide their wealth into separate pots. If they have a big gain, for example, they may think of it as essentially "free" money and take greater risks with it than they would with their "own" money.
* Logically, investors should always base their decisions on current prices and expectations. Instead, they often become fixed on past events, such as the price they paid for a particular stock Investors will often refuse to sell at a price lower than that--even when it makes more sense to accept their loss and invest their remaining money elsewhere.
* In a completely rational market, the risk of loss and the possibility of gain should carry equal weight. However, on average, investors place twice as much importance on avoiding a loss as they do on making a gain. In other words, to accept a 50 percent chance of losing $100, most people will demand at least a 50 percent chance of earning $200.
Are investors doomed to repeat these mistakes? Maybe not. Some studies have shown that the more investors know about the investment process, the less likely they are to be misled by behavioral biases.
This is one reason we encourage investors to develop prudent, long-term investment strategies that take into account their goals and tolerance for risk. While this doesn't guarantee investment success, it can at least reduce the risk of being led astray by behavioral blind spots. That's something even the smartest investor may benefit from in today's volatile market environment.
Don Sommese, a certified financial planner who works in the Manchester office of Morgan Stanley' Smith Barney, can be reached at 603-629-0200.
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|Title Annotation:||Watching Your Money|
|Author:||Sommese, Donald E.|
|Publication:||New Hampshire Business Review|
|Date:||Sep 23, 2011|
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