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UNIVERSITY OF SAN DIEGO'S LEADING INDICATORS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN APRIL

UNIVERSITY OF SAN DIEGO'S LEADING INDICATORS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN APRIL
 SAN DIEGO, June 17 /PRNewswire/ -- The University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County fell 0.1 percent in April. Although four of the six components making up the index increased in the month, two -- building permits and new defense orders -- rose only slightly, while local stock prices and the national economy were up moderately. These were outweighed by the large negative contributions of an increase in initial claims for unemployment insurance and a decrease in tourism.
 One positive development was the slight increase in manufacturers' new orders for defense products, which came after seven consecutive monthly decreases. On the down side, residential units authorized by building permits appear to be weakening after a strong start earlier this year. Also troubling is the upward trend in initial claims for unemployment insurance. It should be noted that the index is designed to capture underlying trends in the individual components, rather than month-to-month movements. Thus, while tourism figures are actually up from the previous year, the underlying trend in that area is negative.
 -- Index of Leading Economic Indicators: -0.1 percent
 The index for San Diego County that includes the
 components listed below (April)
 Source: University of San Diego
 -- Building Permits: 0.07 percent
 Residential units authorized by building
 permits in San Diego County, estimated (April)
 Source: University of San Diego
 -- Unemployment Insurance: -0.96 percent
 Initial claims for unemployment insurance
 in San Diego County, inverted (April)
 Source: Employment Development Department
 -- Stock Prices: 0.62 percent
 San Diego Stock Exchange Index (April)
 Source: San Diego Daily Transcript
 -- Tourism -0.96 percent
 An index of tourist activity in San Diego
 County (April)
 Source: San Diego Convention & Visitors Bureau
 -- New Defense Goods Orders 0.04 percent
 Manufacturers' new orders for defense products
 nationally, smoothed (April)
 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
 -- National Economy 0.54 percent
 Index of Leading Economic Indicators (April)
 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
 April's decrease was the second consecutive monthly decrease for the local index. By comparison, the national index of leading economic indicators has risen for four months in a row. This illustrates the continuing weakness of the local economy relative to the national one. April's decrease put the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 116.0, down from March's reading of 116.1. Revised figures for various components led to no change from the previously reported change of -0.1 percent for March. The monthly movement of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County for the last year is given below:
 Index Percent change
 1991 April 115.9 -0.3
 May 115.7 -0.2
 June 116.0 +0.3
 July 115.8 -0.2
 August 116.2 +0.4
 September 115.1 -0.9
 October 115.7 +0.5
 November 114.9 -0.6
 December 114.1 -0.7
 1992 January 115.3 +1.1
 February 116.2 +0.8
 March 116.1 -0.1
 April 116.0(a) -0.1
 (a) Subject to revision.
 -0- 6/17/92
 /EDITOR'S NOTE: For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators or the activities of the University's Economic Research Group, contact Prof. Alan Gin, School of Business Administration, University of San Diego, Alcala Park, San Diego, CA 92110./
 /CONTACT: Prof. Alan Gin of the University of San Diego, 619-260-4883/ CO: University of San Diego ST: California IN: FIN SU: ECO


CH -- SD002 -- 1094 06/17/92 12:48 EDT
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Publication:PR Newswire
Date:Jun 17, 1992
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