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UNIVERSITY OF SAN DIEGO'S LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS UP IN SEPTEMBER

 SAN DIEGO, Nov. 18 /PRNewswire/ -- The University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.2 percent in September. The gain was due to moderate increases in three components: stock prices, tourism and the outlook for the national economy. On the downside, there was a moderate decrease in help wanted advertising and building permits and initial claims for unemployment insurance were slightly negative. September's increase in initial claims for unemployment insurance was the first after 13 consecutive monthly decreases.
 September's positive reading extended the string of increases in the index that began in April of this year. The outlook for the economy of San Diego County remains positive, although September's gain was relatively small compared to the large increases experienced in the two previous months. Of particular concern is that the trend in two key components, building permits and initial claims for unemployment insurance, turned negative for the first time in months. Prior to September's decrease, residential units authorized by building had increased for seven months in a row. The upturn in initial claims for unemployment insurance, combined with continuing weakness in help wanted advertising, indicates that the labor market remains under pressure. Thus, while the overall trend remains optimistic, caution should still be exercised.
 Index of Leading Economic Indicators: +0.2 percent
 The index for San Diego County that includes the
 components listed below (September)
 Source: University of San Diego
 Building Permits: -0.25 percent
 Residential units authorized by building
 permits in San Diego County, estimated
 (September)
 Source: University of San Diego
 Unemployment Insurance: -0.25 percent
 Initial claims for unemployment insurance
 in San Diego County, inverted (September)
 Source: Employment Development Department
 Stock Prices: +0.88 percent
 San Diego Stock Exchange Index (September)
 Source: San Diego Daily Transcript
 Tourism +0.52 percent
 An index of tourist activity in San Diego
 County (September)
 Source: San Diego Convention & Visitors Bureau
 Help Wanted Advertising -0.57 percent
 An index of help wanted advertising in the
 San Diego Union-Tribune (September)
 Source: Greater San Diego Chamber of Commerce
 National Economy +0.61 percent
 Index of Leading Economic Indicators (September)
 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
 September's increase puts the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 117.8, up from August's revised reading of 117.6. Revised figures for various components resulted in change of +0.4 percent for August instead of the previously reported change of +0.5 percent. The monthly fluctuations of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County for the last year are given below:
 Index Percent change
 1992 September 114.7 -0.2
 October 114.6 -0.1
 November 114.6 +0.0
 December 115.1 +0.4
 1993 January 115.3 +0.2
 February 115.6 +0.2
 March 115.6 -0.0
 April 115.9 +0.3
 May 116.1 +0.2
 June 116.4 +0.2
 July 117.2 +0.6
 August 117.6 +0.4
 September 117.8(a) +0.2
 (a) Subject to revision.
 For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators or the activities of the University's Economic Research Group, contact:
 Professor Alan Gin
 School of Business Administration
 University of San Diego
 5998 Alcala Park
 San Diego, CA 92110
 Telephone: 619-260-4883
 Fax: 619-260-4891
 -0- 11/19/93
 /CONTACT: Prof. Alan Gin of the University of San Diego, 619-260-4883, Fax: 619-260-4891/


CO: University of San Diego ST: California IN: FIN SU: ECO

JB-EH -- SD002 -- 6063 11/18/93 13:04 EST
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Date:Nov 18, 1993
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