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UNIVERSITY OF SAN DIEGO'S LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS UP IN FEBRUARY

 SAN DIEGO, April 12 /PRNewswire/ -- The University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.2 percent in February. Four components were positive during the month, led by the seventh consecutive monthly decrease in initial claims for unemployment insurance. Local stock prices and the outlook for the national economy were up moderately, and there was a small increase in help wanted advertising. On the negative side, bad weather caused tourism to drop sharply once again, while building permits were virtually unchanged, although with a slight negative bias. Combined with revised figures for January showing a decrease instead of the previously reported increase, building permits have now decreased for 10 months in a row.
 February's uptick is the third consecutive increase in the index. This historically has signaled a bottoming out of the local economy in the near future, with an upturn expected in the second half of 1993. However, the small increases seen in the last two months indicate that any turnaround may be weak. Thus, while there is cause for optimism, it is unlikely that San Diego's economy will see the rapid growth that was experienced in the 1980s.
 Index of Leading Economic Indicators: +0.2 percent
 The index for San Diego County that includes the
 components listed below (February)
 Source: University of San Diego
 Building Permits: -0.09 percent
 Residential units authorized by building
 permits in San Diego County, estimated
 (February)
 Source: University of San Diego
 Unemployment Insurance: +1.49 percent
 Initial claims for unemployment insurance
 in San Diego County, inverted (February)
 Source: Employment Development Department
 Stock Prices: +0.88 percent
 San Diego Stock Exchange Index (February)
 Source: San Diego Daily Transcript
 Tourism -1.97 percent
 An index of tourist activity in San Diego
 County (February)
 Source: San Diego Convention & Visitors Bureau
 Help Wanted Advertising +0.22 percent
 A index of help wanted advertising in the
 San Diego Union-Tribune (February)
 Source: Greater San Diego Chamber of Commerce
 National Economy +0.69 percent
 Index of Leading Economic Indicators (February)
 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
 February's increase put the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 115.5, up from January's reading of 115.3. Revised figures for various components caused no change in January's previously reported change of +0.2 percent. The monthly fluctuations of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County for the last year are given below:
 Index Percent change
 1992 February 116.1 +0.7
 March 116.0 -0.1
 April 115.9 -0.1
 May 115.8 -0.1
 June 115.5 -0.2
 July 115.1 -0.3
 August 114.9 -0.2
 September 114.7 -0.2
 October 114.6 -0.1
 November 114.6 0.0
 December 115.1 +0.4
 1993 January 115.3 +0.2
 February 115.3(a) +0.2
 (a) Subject to revision.
 -0- 4/12/93
 /EDITOR'S NOTE: For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators or the activities of the University's Economic Research Group, contact Prof. Alan Gin, School of Business Administration, University of San Diego, 5998 Alcala Park, San Diego, CA 92110./
 /CONTACT: Prof. Alan Gin of the University of San Diego, 619-260-4883, Fax: 619-260-4891/


CO: University of San Diego ST: California IN: FIN SU: ECO

EH-MS -- SD003 -- 4776 04/12/93 12:39 EDT
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Date:Apr 12, 1993
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