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UNIVERSITY OF SAN DIEGO'S LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN MARCH

 SAN DIEGO, May 13 /PRNewswire/ -- The University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County fell 0.1 percent in March. Four components decreased during the month, led by a sharp decrease in the outlook for the national economy. Tourism was down moderately, and there were small decreases in building permits and help wanted advertising. (Note: Raw tourism statistics were up in March, but with the effects of very low activity in January and February still rippling through the local economy, the impact of tourism on the index is negative.) On the positive side, initial claims for unemployment insurance were down sharply, and there was a moderate increase in local stock prices. Initial claims for unemployment insurance have now declined for eight months in a row.
 March's decrease broke a string of three consecutive monthly increases in the index. Combined with the small increases in January and February, it indicates that the local economy is still in a fragile state. Two key sectors of the economy, tourism and housing construction, are still in the doldrums. A vigorous recovery is unlikely without contributions from those areas.
 Index of Leading Economic Indicators -0.1 percent
 The index for San Diego County that includes the
 components listed below (March)
 Source: University of San Diego
 Building Permits -0.16 percent
 Residential units authorized by building
 permits in San Diego County, estimated (March)
 Source: University of San Diego
 Unemployment Insurance +1.04 percent
 Initial claims for unemployment insurance
 in San Diego County, inverted (March)
 Source: Employment Development Department
 Stock Prices +0.80 percent
 San Diego Stock Exchange Index (March)
 Source: San Diego Daily Transcript
 Tourism -0.74 percent
 An index of tourist activity in San Diego
 County (March)
 Source: San Diego Convention & Visitors Bureau
 Help Wanted Advertising -0.15 percent
 An index of help wanted advertising in the
 San Diego Union-Tribune (March)
 Source: Greater San Diego Chamber of Commerce
 National Economy -1.31 percent
 Index of Leading Economic Indicators (March)
 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
 March's increase put the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 115.5, down from February's revised reading of 115.6. Revised figures for various components caused no change in February's previously reported change of +0.2 percent. The monthly fluctuations of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County for the last year are given below:
 Index Percent change
 1992 March 116.0 -0.1
 April 115.9 -0.1
 May 115.8 -0.1
 June 115.5 -0.2
 July 115.1 -0.3
 August 114.9 -0.2
 September 114.7 -0.2
 October 114.6 -0.1
 November 114.6 0.0
 December 115.1 +0.4
 1993 January 115.3 +0.2
 February 115.6 +0.2
 March 115.5(a) -0.1
 (a) Subject to revision.
 -0- 5/13/93
 /EDITOR'S NOTE: For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators or the activities of the University's Economic Research Group, contact Prof. Alan Gin, School of Business Administration, University of San Diego, 5998 Alcala Park, San Diego, CA 92110./
 /CONTACT: Prof. Alan Gin of the University of San Diego, 619-260-4883/


CO: University of San Diego ST: California IN: FIN SU: ECO

BP-JL -- SD002 -- 8264 05/13/93 15:53 EDT
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Date:May 13, 1993
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