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UNIVERSITY OF SAN DIEGO'S LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS DOWN IN JULY

UNIVERSITY OF SAN DIEGO'S LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS DOWN IN JULY
 SAN DIEGO, Sept. 15 /PRNewswire/ -- The University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County fell 0.2 percent in July. Four of the six components were negative during the month. The largest negative influence came from new defense orders, which dropped for the 11th month in a row, and moderate decreases were seen in building permits and local stock prices. Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose slightly during the month, which resulted in the sixth consecutive negative impact for that component. The one positive note for July was tourism, which was up sharply during the month. The national index of leading economic indicators was virtually unchanged for the month.
 July's decrease was the fifth consecutive monthly decrease for the local index. The economy of San Diego County remains weak, and there are no signs of imminent recovery. With the recovery in the national economy weak at best and possibly stalling, with cuts in state and local government spending because of the state budget crisis, and with layoffs announced at companies such as Hughes Aircraft, the local situation may actually get worse before it gets better.
 -- Index of Leading Economic Indicators: -0.2 percent
 The index for San Diego County that includes the
 components listed below (July)
 Source: University of San Diego
 -- Building Permits: -0.68 percent
 Residential units authorized by building
 permits in San Diego County, estimated
 (July)
 Source: University of San Diego
 -- Unemployment Insurance: -0.36 percent
 Initial claims for unemployment insurance
 in San Diego County, inverted (July)
 Source: Employment Development Department
 -- Stock Prices: -0.65 percent
 San Diego Stock Exchange Index (July)
 Source: San Diego Daily Transcript
 -- Tourism +1.67 percent
 An index of tourist activity in San Diego
 County (July)
 Source: San Diego Convention & Visitors Bureau
 -- New Defense Goods Orders -1.44 percent
 Manufacturers' new orders for defense products
 nationally (July)
 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
 -- National Economy +0.09 percent
 Index of Leading Economic Indicators (July)
 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
 July's decrease put the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 115.4, down from June's reading of 115.7. Revised figures for various components resulted in no change from the previously reported movement of -0.2 percent for June. The monthly movement of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County for the last year is given below:
 Index Percent change
 1991 July 115.7 -0.4
 August 116.2 +0.4
 September 115.1 -1.0
 October 115.7 +0.5
 November 114.9 -0.6
 December 114.0 -0.8
 1992 January 115.4 +1.2
 February 116.2 +0.7
 March 116.0 -0.1
 April 116.0 -0.1
 May 115.9 -0.0
 June 115.7 -0.2
 July 115.4 -0.2
 Subject to revision.
 -0- 9/15/92
 /EDITOR'S NOTE: For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators or the activities of the University's Economic Research Group, contact Prof. Alan Gin, School of Business Administration, University of San Diego, 5998 Alcala Park, San Diego, CA 92110./
 /CONTACT: Prof. Alan Gin of the University of San Diego, 619-260-4883/ CO: University of San Diego ST: California IN: FIN SU: ECO


EH-KJ -- SD003 -- 9715 09/15/92 14:47 EDT
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Date:Sep 15, 1992
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