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UFS Investment Company - Technical Analysis, FTSE Index - Ongoing Moderate Growth, Mar 15, 2013.

FTSE Index: Ongoing Moderate Growth

FTSE Index was forming wave I of a large-scale five-wave upward impulse during Q1 2009 - Q2 2010. During the quarter wave I was corrected by wave II. During mid-2010 - Q1 2011 the index was establishing wave 1a as a part of wave III; then a lengthy correction of the first wave within wave III followed and was developing till May 2012. At the moment the index is forming wave 3a. Within the stated wave, subwave [3a] is nearing its completion to be followed by the nascent correctional decline a subwave [4a], whose target we see at 6180 points. Then the growth within subwave [5a] of wave 3a will recommence. The estimated structure of further FTSE dynamics is outlined in the chart above.

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Indicators: in late Q3 - early Q4 2011 MACD sent a buy signal in the intra-week chart; the signal was confirmed in mid-2012 and in Q4 2012 and is still under way. The uptrend indicator DMI+ stands above the downtrend indicator DMI-, while the trend strength indicator ADX is positioned in the middle of the scale and is moving upwards, which implies the uptrend development. The indicator based on ADX dynamics, sent a sell signal in late February - early March 2013, which was provoked by a slight correction of sharp growth observed in January 2012 and is no more effective.

Recommendation:

1) within the completion of wave 3a a buy FTSE futures at 6180 points in order to sell at 6900 points (+11.65%); a stop order can be placed at 6075 points (-1.70%); time horizon is 6 months;

2) within the development of wave 5a a buy FTSE futures at 6270 points with a view to selling at 7300 points (+16.43%); stop order is at 6075 points (-3.11%); time horizon is 10 months;

3) within the completion of wave IV and the formation of wave V a buy FTSE futures at 6320 points in order to sell at 7940 points (+25.63%), with a stop order at 6115 points (-3.24%); time horizon is 9 months.

Support: 5935; 5230; 4900; 4500; 3750.

Resistance: 6754; 6900; 7300; 7940.

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For further information please contact: UFS Investment Company,

129090, Moscow, Protopopovskiy lane, 2

Tel.: General: +7 (495) 781 02 02

Fax: +7 (495) 781 73 07

e-mail: research@ufs-federation.com, http://en.ufs-federation.com
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Publication:Russian Banks and Brokers Reports
Date:Mar 16, 2013
Words:417
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