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UFS Investment Company - Daily Stock Market Review, Mar 15, 2013.

Market Situation

The number of initial claims for unemployment aid fell 10,000 to 332,000 last week.

Japan's industrial production according to the final estimate for January increased 0.3% m/m.

Today the upper house of the Japanese parliament has finally approved a new head of the national central bank.

Eurozone employment in Q4 2012 fell 0.3% q/q.

The US lifted the ban on Iranian oil purchases for 10 EU countries and Japan. At the same time, the US imposed

sanctions on the companies operating tanker shipments of National Iranian Tanker Company.

(To view the original document, please click on the link below:

http://reports.aiidatapro.com/brokers/UFSen/UFS-130315-eng.pdf)

Comments

Mechel Will Economize on Vanino Port Minority Shareholders (Moderately Positive)

NOVATEK Has Won the Auction (Moderately Positive)

Sberbank Stepped to the Middle (Moderately Positive)

Key Statistics Today

Eurozone CPI (14:00);

US CPI (16:30);

US Industrial Production (17:15);

UoM Consumer Sentiment (17:55).

Corporate Events Today

EGM of Metalloinvest Shareholders;

Annual General Meeting of Soda Shareholders;

Annual General Meeting of PAVA Shareholders;

EGM of IDGC of North Caucasus Shareholders;

Gazprom Board of Directors Meeting;

Apatit Board of Directors Meeting;

Yakutskenergo Board of Directors Meeting;

Mechel Board of Directors Meeting;

PhosAgro GDR Will Be Included in FTSE Global Equity and FTSE All World Equity.

Market Situation

The US continues to report good news. According to the US Department of Labor, the number of initial claims for unemployment aid fell 10,000 to 332,000 last week. Meanwhile, the number of continuing claims in the week before last totalled 3024,000 against 3113,000 a week before. The US labour market has been developing on the positive note during the last 4 months. Last November the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits reached 440,000 a week. By now the number of people coming to the employment office has decreased by a quarter. Unemployment rate has fallen to a several-year record low of 7.7%.

Japan's industrial production, according to the final estimate for January, increased 0.3% m/m. in the prior month the figure was +1.0%. Somewhat earlier Japan had elected the new Prime- Minister that started an active stimulating policy. Today the upper house of the Japanese parliament has finally approved Haruhiko Kuroda as the head of the national central bank. Kuroda was nominated by the new Prime-Minister Shinzo Abe and is his associate. Against this backdrop the yen has weakened 23% during the last 5.5 months, from 78 yens per dollar to the current 96 yens per dollar. Such a strong impetus for Japan's export-oriented economy helped the economy stabilize and start increasing.

Eurozone employment in Q4 2012 fell 0.3% q/q. Three months earlier employment, according to the revised data, contracted 0.1%. Q4 was extremely disappointing for the euro area economy. However, many Eurozone officials, including the ECB head Mario Draghi, repeatedly stated that the first signs of stabilization are currently in place, and economic recovery is to be expected in the second half-year.

The US lifted the ban on Iranian oil purchases for 10 EU countries and Japan. The list is comprised of the UK, Germany,

France, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Greece, the Netherlands, Czech Republic, Poland and Japan. However, the US authorities noted they are ready to retain sanctions against Tehran. At the same time, the US imposed sanctions on the companies operating tanker shipments of National Iranian Tanker Company. That caused the spread narrowing between Brent and Light Sweet to $15.8, while a week earlier the spread was about $19.5. The spread contracted as Brent price fell about 1.5%, while Light Sweet added over 2%.

Yesterday Brent added about 1% on upbeat US labour market news and is now at $109.43. Supposedly, the started dollar weakening may drive further Brent growth.

Rising oil prices and increasing investors' risk appetite are bolstering the Russian ruble that did not manage to surpass

30.80 rubles per dollar yesterday. We believe today USD/RUB will be on the slide and will be ranging within 30.65-30.75 rubles per dollar. EUR/RUB will be trading within 40.00-40.20 rubles per euro.

After yesterday's fall to 1.2911 EUR/USD again stands above 1.3000. At the moment EUR/USD is 1.3026 and has fair chances to keep on rising today. We expect the currency pair to move within 1.2990-1.3070 today.

The MICEX Index has been forming a correctional decline during 4 days and today is ready to continue rising towards 1520 points. The index overcoming this level and consolidating above it may intensify buying. This morning external market mood has been positive. The US index S&P 500 rose 0.56% to 1563.23 points yesterday, having neared the all-time maximum of 1576.09 points, which is 12.86 points, or 0.82% higher. Asian indices are mainly trading up as the upper house of the Japanese Parliament has confirmed the new BOJ Head: NIKKEI 225 is adding 1.35%; Shanghai Composite is edging up 1.65%; Hong Kong Hang Seng is climbing 0.76%; KOSPI is 0.57% down; Indian SENSEX is 0.43% up; Australian ASX is rising 0.89%. The euro is strengthening, indicating increasing risk appetite; Brent price is rising about 1%.

More: http://reports.aiidatapro.com/brokers/UFSen/UFS-130315-eng.pdf

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Publication:Russian Banks and Brokers Reports
Geographic Code:9JAPA
Date:Mar 16, 2013
Words:939
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