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Turnaround in exports expected mid-2002. (News and Views).

The uncertainty created in the aftermath of September 11th makes it impossible to be definitive on the outlook for Canadian exporters in the year ahead, but a turnaround in export performance is not expected until the middle of 2002 at the earliest, according to the semi-annual global export forecast issued by Export Development Corporation (EDC).

"Businesses and consumers now face unprecedented levels of uncertainty and risks as the implications of September 11th for the global economy have yet to be fully realized," says EDC vice-president and chief economist Stephen Poloz. "Since it is impossible to predict how consumer psychology will be affected, we are advising Canadian exporters to plan on two possible scenarios," says Poloz.

EDC's forecast includes scenarios for both a delayed recovery and a recession. Under a delayed recovery scenario, Canadian export sales are expected to have contracted 4% in 2001, recover slightly, and grow by about 1% in 2002. In a recession scenario, export sales are expected to have contracted 7% in 2001, and decline by a further 6% in 2002.

During 2002, EDC expects world economic growth to gradually improve to reach 3.4% under the delay delayed recovery scenario. However, if the downturn in the global economy--attributed to lingering effects of the "tech wreck" of 2000 and the potential impact of the terrorist attacks on consumer confidence -- becomes an outright recession, world economic growth would be about 2.6% in 2002. This scenario would see the global economy remain weak until at least mid-2002.
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Author:Doucet, Kristin
Publication:CMA Management
Article Type:Brief Article
Geographic Code:1CANA
Date:Mar 1, 2002
Words:249
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