The top 10 forecasts of all time.
In Knowing Our Future, author Michael Lee rates history's top 10 forecasts, giving points for farsightedness, importance, and logic.
1. The rise of equal rights for women, Marquis de Condorcet. Predicted: 1795. Fulfilled: from 1893.
2. Peak oil for the United States and the world, M. King Hubbert. Predicted: 1956. Fulfilled: 1970 (U.S.), 2000 (world).
3. The rise of economic globalization, Marquis de Condorcet. Predicted: 1795. Fulfilled: from 1944 (Bretton Woods).
4. Slowing down of economic growth due to ecological and environmental constraints, with an end to all high growth by 2022, Club of Rome. Predicted: 1972. Fulfilled: from the 2008 credit crisis and subsequent euro zone crisis onwards.
5. Motorization of society in the twentieth century, H.G. Wells. Predicted: 1901. Fulfilled: from debut of Ford's Model T in 1908.
6. Decline of British global supremacy due to depletion of coal resources, W. Stanley Jevons. Predicted: 1865. Fulfilled: from the steep decline of coal production after 1925.
7. National restoration of Israel after lengthy exile and following a time of "outpoured wrath," Ezekiel. Predicted: 593-571 BC. Fulfilled: 1948.
8. Rise of famine due to overpopulation in modern era, Thomas Malthus. Predicted: 1798. Fulfilled: from the Great Irish Famine of 1946-1851 to famine in North Korea in the 1990s.
9. Outbreak of World War II due to German rearmament, Winston Churchill. Predicted: 1933. Fulfilled: 1939.
10. Fall of the Berlin Wall, J. Richard Gott. Predicted: 1969. Fulfilled: 1989. (Gott, an astrophysicist, used Copernican principles to calculate his prediction rather than extrapolating from geopolitical developments.)
From Knowing Our Future, Michael Lee.
|Printer friendly Cite/link Email Feedback|
|Article Type:||Brief article|
|Date:||May 1, 2013|
|Previous Article:||Discovering How to See the Future: Futurology is about more than foreseeing the future; its goals are to advance the future's knowability. We can...|
|Next Article:||The Road to Hell is Paved with Efficiency.|