Printer Friendly

The U.S. Industrial production report undershot estimates.

The U.S. Industrial production report undershot estimates with a 0.1% March drop after small net downward revisions, with the Q1 disappointment spread between the manufacturing and mining sectors. Analysts saw a small upside surprise for utilities. The flat manufacturing output figure matched hours-worked from the jobs report, with a hit from a -4.1% vehicle assembly rate swing to a 10.8 M rate after prior upward revisions. Mining revealed a -0.8% March figure that undershot a 0.3% hours-worked rise. The factory sector will likely bounce in Q2 given the stabilization in producer sentiment at still-firm levels, and a firm path for mining despite the Q1 setback that followed the Q4 oil price plunge. Analysts saw winter disruptions from harsh weather, a government shutdown, fires, hurricanes, and an equity market meltdown that raised uncertainty, but all of these disruptive impacts have reversed direction now. Analysts expect a 3.0% growth rate for industrial production in Q2 after rates of -0.3% in Q1, 4.0% (was 3.7%) in Q4, and 5.2% in Q3. The factory sector is still outperforming GDP, with estimated 2019 gains of 2.9% for industrial production and 2.6% for GDP, following respective gains of 3.9% and 2.9% in 2018, 2.3% and 2.2% in 2017, -2.0% and 1.6% in 2016, and -1.0% and 2.9% in 2015.

COPYRIGHT 2019 The Fly
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 2019 Gale, Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Article Details
Printer friendly Cite/link Email Feedback
Publication:The Fly
Date:Apr 16, 2019
Previous Article:U.S. NAHB housing market index rose 1 point to 63 in April.
Next Article:Repeat call buying in McDermott as shares reach multi-month highs.

Terms of use | Privacy policy | Copyright © 2020 Farlex, Inc. | Feedback | For webmasters