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The 179k ADP rise in November.

The 179k ADP rise in November undershot our 210k private BLS payroll estimate with a 215k total BLS payroll increase, after a trimming in the October ADP gain to 225k from 227k that widened the gap to the 246k private payroll increase for that month. leaving some downside risk for our 215k November nonfarm payroll estimate. Analysts saw a lean 16k November rise for goods jobs that under-performed robust factory sentiment readings, with gains of 4k for factories, 10k for construction and 2k for mining, alongside an expected 163k service sector jobs increase. For the effects of hurricanes and other disasters, and in November's case the California fires, workers are included in ADP payrolls even if they miss work, whereas workers are only counted as working in the BLS payroll report if they worked during the BLS survey period. Analysts've seen undershoots of ADP to BLS payrolls in 7 of the last 13 months and 14 of the last 25 months, or roughly half the time, though with lopsided magnitudes that account for a big "as reported" ADP overshoot, on average, of 21k since the methodology change of October 2016.

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Publication:The Fly
Date:Dec 6, 2018
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