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Tariff Effect on Soybean Trade.

Chinese soybean imports from the United States could drop by as much as 71 percent if China were to impose trade restrictions on U.S. soybeans in response to U.S. tariffs on Chinese products, according to a study for the U.S. Soybean Export Council conducted by Purdue University agricultural economists Wally Tyner and Farzad Taheripour.

China is the world's largest soybean importer, and 62 percent of all U.S. soybean exports go to China. Using an analysis model developed at Purdue, the researchers projected the impact on soybean production if the Chinese government were to adopt tariffs ranging from 10 to 30 percent. Their analysis shows that if the Chinese were to adopt a 10 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans, U.S. exports to that country could fall by a third. Total U.S. soybean exports could decline by 18 percent, and total U.S. soybean production could drop by 8 percent. If China imposed a 30 percent tariff, total U.S. soybean exports could fall by 40 percent and total U.S. soybean production could decrease by 17 percent.

Tyner said an escalating trade war could hurt both countries.

"The annual loss in U.S. economic well-being would range between $1.7 billion and $3.3 billion," he said. "Chinese economic well-being also falls if they impose a tariff, in some cases as much or more than for the U.S. The reason is that soybean imports are very important to their domestic economy."

--Darrin Pack, based on an article from Agricultural Communications, Purdue University College of Agriculture, March 28, 2018

Top Soybean Growers
Value, in millions, of soybean production in the top-producing states
in 2017

Illinois      $5,874
Iowa          $5,195
Minnesota     $3,479
Indiana       $3,063
Nebraska      $2,951
Missouri      $2,722
Ohio          $2,394
South Dakota  $2,147
North Dakota  $2,133
Arkansas      $1,740

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture. National Agricultural
Statistics Services, 2017

Note: Table made from bar graph.
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Article Details
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Title Annotation:TRENDS
Author:Pack, Darrin
Publication:State Legislatures
Article Type:Brief article
Geographic Code:1USA
Date:Jul 1, 2018
Words:329
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