Tariff Effect on Soybean Trade.
Chinese soybean imports from the United States could drop by as much as 71 percent if China were to impose trade restrictions on U.S. soybeans in response to U.S. tariffs on Chinese products, according to a study for the U.S. Soybean Export Council conducted by Purdue University agricultural economists Wally Tyner and Farzad Taheripour.
China is the world's largest soybean importer, and 62 percent of all U.S. soybean exports go to China. Using an analysis model developed at Purdue, the researchers projected the impact on soybean production if the Chinese government were to adopt tariffs ranging from 10 to 30 percent. Their analysis shows that if the Chinese were to adopt a 10 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans, U.S. exports to that country could fall by a third. Total U.S. soybean exports could decline by 18 percent, and total U.S. soybean production could drop by 8 percent. If China imposed a 30 percent tariff, total U.S. soybean exports could fall by 40 percent and total U.S. soybean production could decrease by 17 percent.
Tyner said an escalating trade war could hurt both countries.
"The annual loss in U.S. economic well-being would range between $1.7 billion and $3.3 billion," he said. "Chinese economic well-being also falls if they impose a tariff, in some cases as much or more than for the U.S. The reason is that soybean imports are very important to their domestic economy."
--Darrin Pack, based on an article from Agricultural Communications, Purdue University College of Agriculture, March 28, 2018
Top Soybean Growers Value, in millions, of soybean production in the top-producing states in 2017 Illinois $5,874 Iowa $5,195 Minnesota $3,479 Indiana $3,063 Nebraska $2,951 Missouri $2,722 Ohio $2,394 South Dakota $2,147 North Dakota $2,133 Arkansas $1,740 Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture. National Agricultural Statistics Services, 2017 Note: Table made from bar graph.
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|Article Type:||Brief article|
|Date:||Jul 1, 2018|
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