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Survey gives BJP an edge over JD-U in Lok Sabha polls after NDA split, Nitish likely to gain in state election.

Summary: The biggest gainer from the NDA split stands to be Lalu Prasad Yadav's RJD, Headlines Today-CVoter survey outcomes suggest.

Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has been the most sought after man in Indian politics after winning the confidence vote in Bihar Assembly on Wednesday. However, while he remains bullish about his party Janata Dal-United's prospects for 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the reality seems to be painting a different picture.

A Headlines Today-CVoter survey has revealed that if elections are conducted in Bihar today, the ruling JD-U stands to lose massively after its acrimonious split with the BJP and even an alliance with the Congress is unlikely to improve the matters.

In fact, the biggest gainer from the NDA split stands to be Lalu Prasad Yadav's RJD, the opinion poll outcomes suggest.

The virtual split in the NDA has been creating different scenarios in Vidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha equations at the same time. While the BJP looks to be gaining from the split at the national level, the JD-U is coming out stronger on the state level.

The RJD is gaining by default in both the scenarios. While the gains are limited at the Lok Sabha level, the NDA split might throw the RJD as the single largest party if the assembly elections are held on Thursday.

The combination of Lalu and Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party, however, look still short of majority if the Vidhan Sabha polls are held on Thursday, the survey results show.

The Congress is hardly gaining from the BJP-JD(U) split and continues to be in the delicate position as ever as it might lose big time if the party decides to contest on its own. However, if it joins hands with Lalu and Paswan to form the 2004 UPA equation, the alliance might achieve the majority mark.

The same stands true for Nitish as well. If he joins hands with the Congress, the numbers might put him back into equation in Vidhan Sabha.

The survey suggested the NDA split of votes in the ratio of 60:40 in favour of the BJP in case of Lok Sabha election, while it was the other way round in favour of the JD-U in Vidhan Sabha polls.

The equation might produce a classic four-cornered contest with no party appear to cross the 25 per cent vote share mark. Any pre-poll alliance with the Congress for the JD-U and the RJD might throw different equations all the way, the survey indicated.

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Publication:Headlines Today (New Delhi, India)
Date:Jun 20, 2013
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