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Statistical supplement economic survey 1989-90.

Statistical Supplement Economic Survey 1989-90

The Economic Adviser's Wing of Ministry of Finace government of Pakistan Islamabad makes public an Economic Survey of the country, a few days before the Federal Budget. The Federal Budget is presented in the National Assembly in May or June when economic facts and figures for the full year ending in that June are not available. So the sectoral economic statistics are estimated for the first 9 months of the financial year or even less period of estimates for the full year are provisional and subject to substantial changes. Most of these estimates are revised in the statistical supplement which is generally issued during the September-December period of the Budgetary year, Budget for which was announced in May or June last.

The Statistical Supplement is being issued since 1986, when the first edition came out in November u986 to update Economic Survey 1985-86. So the Statistical Supplement to the Economic Survey 1989-90, is the fifth edition and it completes half of decade of its life. It is imperative that this useful publication is continued and the series is not interrupted or stopped as it has been done in case of some other Government publications. It may be pointed out here that issue covers only the statistical portion of the Economic Survey and involves repriting of around 200 pages only. Further, this year's Statistical Supplement has been prepared in such away that its pages (208) are less than 224 pages of the Statistical Section of the Economic Survey.

Some statistical tables of the Economic Survey and Statistical Supplement remain unchanged. In these, the tables on population and national income are good examples. the tables on population do not change as the estimates are based on census data or some sample surveys conducted periodically or annual estimates of population, civilian labour force, employment and unemploument are projected according to settled principles and there is no need to revised the Economic Survey data in the statistical supplement. Some minor ajustments are, however, made.

National income is the next section, which remains unchanged as it is the result of the contribution of all economic sectors, reliable estimates of all of whic are not available even during the first half of the following year. Also, there is a National Accounts Committee, which meets periodically and it is impossible to revise the estimates of GNP or GDP, before the end of the following financial year. So the estimates of national income, depreciation, per capita income and public and private investments remain unchanged throughout the year.

Next comes agriculture, which contrary to two first sections, population and national income is subject to drastic changes. And strangely enough, the figures of most of agricultural inputs and production have been raised downward in the statistical supplement as compared to the Economic survey as shown in a table.

Strangely enough, despite substantial changes in the output of wheat (and resultant total foodgrains) and sugarcane, the value added shares of vaious crops in total is the same in the Economic Survey and the Statistical Supplement. Their shares should have been adjusted in table 3.6. There are significant changes in the quantum of rainfall in 1989, at some places of Pakistan.

Manufacturing and Mining are the other two sectors where there are significant differences between the statistics of Economic Survey and the Statistical Supplement. In fact, production indices of mining, on three different basis have been revised upward substantially as shown in the following table.

The practice followed in case of the revision of the production index of manufacturing is different from that of the production index of mining. While later is revised in the Statistical Supplement, it is not done in case of former and the indices of manufacturing are not revised until the next Economic Survey. So the production index of manufacturing remains unchanged at 197.5 in both the publications. Further, this is based on 1980-81 = 100 production and the indices on the bases of 1969-70 and 1975-76 have been discontinued.

This time, an additional table has been added in the Statistical Supplement, namely "Trade 4.3 - Fixed Assets Statistics by Major Group of Industries". This is a new component of a big table 4.3. It was not available in the Economic Survey. The additional material is for the years 1984-85 and 1985-86. Figures for the cotton textile industry were available in the Economic Survey for the july-October 1989 period and in the Statistical Supplement for the July-November 1989 period. Only one month or 25 per cent of the period has been added in the Statistical Supplement but production of the cotton textile industry has increased in terms of cotton yarn by 28.7 per cent. This is partly due to the commissioning of the additional capacity. So far a research worker or an organisation it is imperative to keep pace with the development of country's biggest industry and its statistics.

In case of most of other industries, while statistics in the Economic Survey are for 9 months, in the Statistical Supplement, these are for full year 1989-90. In some cases, the figures are not available for the whole year, either in the Economic Survey or in the Statistical Supplement. For some items, these statistics are not available for years. These include sea salt, artsilk and rayon cloth, safety matches, total number of fans, pedestal fans, ceiling fans and "all other fans. Production figures are not available for M.S. products for two years.

The figures of energy demand and supply were for 9 months in the Economic Survey and for full year in the Statistical Supplement. Production statistics of all energy items including oil, gas, coal and electricity have been updated. An important addition in the Statistical Supplement is the inclusion of electricity tariffs effective from 1st July 1990.

There have been substantial changes in statistics, in the Statistical Supplement, pertaining to transport and communications. With a few exceptions, these have been updated upto the end of the year in the Statistical Supplement. Some statistics are not available even for 1989. For instance, the number of motor vehicles registered are available upto the end of 1988 only, in both the publications. The "table 6.6 - Production, Import and Sale of Motor Vehicles" in the Economic Survey gave statistics upto December 1989. The Statistical Supplement gives upto June 1990.

The statistics on monetary assests have been brought to 30 June 1990 in the Statistical Supplement while in the Economic Survey these were upto the end of March 1990. The statistics about public finace in the Economic Survey and Statistical Supplement are according to the availability of Budgetary statistics. As the Economic Survey is published before the Federal Budget, provisional actual estimates are available for the previous year (1988-89 in case of Economic Survey 1989-90) and Budget Estimates for the current year 1989-90. In the Statistical Supplement 1989-90, Revised budget estimates are available for 1989-90, and Budget Estimates for 1990-91.

In case of prices, there is some confusion between the two publications. In the Economic Survey 1989-90 the three indices, (i) Consumer Price Index, (ii) Wholesale Price Index and (iii) Sensitive Price Index are estimated on the old base of 1975-76. There is no mention of the new base 1980-81. The evailable statistics of indices are available upto March 1990. On the other hand, in the Statistical Supplement, statistics are based on both the years 1975-76 as well as 1980-81. However, the index based on 1975-76 is available upto 1980-81 only and that on 1980-81 upto June 1990. Trade and balance of payments statistics are upto March 1990 in the Economic Survey and upto June 1990 in the Statistical Supplement.

An important addition has been made in the Economic Survey and Statistical Supplement that highlights of all sectors have been given. There are some errors in some sections of the Statistical Supplement which should have been avoided. Only instances can be mentioned. Employ labour force in 1989-90 in table 1.10 (page 15), commericial energy demand in household sector in 1989-90 in table 5.1 (page 85) and in Highlights page XV, passengers carried in 1989-90 (48.6) may be mentioned.
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Author:Khan, Abdul Majid
Publication:Economic Review
Article Type:Book Review
Date:Dec 1, 1990
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