Spreadwise: Pietro Bembo and Nemisto rate sells.
Not only has he withdrawn his other five entries, but in so doing he has allowed the weights to go up by 5lb, leaving Seebald to carry top weight.
It was a similar scenario two years ago when Pipe's Blowing Wind bolted up under 11st 10lb, before going on to scoop a pounds 50,000 bonus by winning the County Hurdle at Cheltenham.
However, the ex-French Blowing Wind had been brought along with handicaps in mind, whereas Seebald has revealed far more of his ability to the British handicapper already.
Postmark and Topspeed ratings suggest he is harshly treated on bare hurdle form, so can we take on Pipe?
Seebald, as low as 13-8 in the fixed-odds market, looks a likely drifter on course, and a sell at 22 with IG is tempting for punters who follow the form-book.
However, the word I've received is to resist the temptation and, given the stable's excellent record in this type of event, that view commands respect.
That is not to say Seebald is a buy at 21 with Spreadex, unless you're after the arbitrage, but he can run for us if we sell some others.
Sell Pietro Bembo at 6 with Spreadex. This front-runner had things all his own way at Kempton last time, but will surely not be allowed the same rope this time and I expect him to fade out of contention up the Sandown hill.
Sell Nemisto at 5 with Spreadex. Although consistent, he has paid for that and is now harshly handicapped. He is also prone to racing keenly.
Best buy is Minivet at 13 with Sporting and Spreadex. He has run well in the hurly-burly of big Flat handicaps, and he showed what he can do in similar conditions over hurdles when impressive at Doncaster last time. Even if Minivet does not win, he should run his race and make the frame.
The weak link in Sporting's 'In The Frame' market has to be Trouble Ahead, an 'iffy' jumper in a nine-runner handicap. However, given the strength behind Sunrise Special and Seebald, I would sooner be a buyer at 23 than a seller at 20.
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|Publication:||The Racing Post (London, England)|
|Date:||Mar 11, 2000|
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