Spatial analysis of dengue fever.
The range of transmission of dengue fever (DF), one of the most
prevalent arboviral diseases in the world, has increased in recent
decades. A better understanding of DF transmission is needed in order to
control the spread of this disease. Hu et al. (p. 260) examined the
effects of socioecologic factors on the transmission of DF and assessed
potential predictors of locally acquired and overseas-acquired cases of
DF in Queensland, Australia. The authors obtained data on the number of
notified DF cases by local government area (LGA) for 1 January 2002 to
31 December 2005, as well as data on weather and a socioeconomic index.
A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive model was fitted at the
LGA level to quantify the relationship between DF and socioecologic
factors. For locally acquired DF, the authors estimate an increase of 6%
with a 1-mm increase in average monthly rainfall and a 61% increase
associated with a 1[degrees]C increase in average monthly maximum
temperature between 2002 and 2005. Overseas-acquired DF cases increased
by 1% in association with either a 1-mm increase in average monthly
rainfall or a 1-unit increase in average socioeconomic index. The
authors conclude that socioecological factors appear to influence the
transmission of DF in Queensland, but different drivers may he
responsible for locally acquired and overseas-acquired DF.