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South Sudan - The RSS Prospects.

The RSS civil war has not really ended as the tribal conflict remains deep (see gmt9SudanNS-Who29Feb16). The Aug. 17, 2015 "peace accord" between RSS President Salva Kiir and arch-rival Riek Machar is more likely to be a "mere temporary arrangement than a constitutionally guaranteed pact", says a powerful chieftain of the huge and ruling Dinka Tribe - one of Africa's largest confederations of tribal groups. Machar belongs to the most powerful tribe of the Nuer confederation. The latter is even a bigger confederation of tribes as its branches extend to Ethiopia. But the Dinka confederation is deeply split with the branches backing the late Gen John Garang is opposed to those on which Kiir depends for support (see Kiir's and Machar's profiles in gmt9SudanNS-Who29Feb16).

In view of this tribal reality, it took until Feb. 24, 2016 for Kiir's government to announce Machar's forces will deploy in Juba in March to bolster a fragile peace pact. If the deployment does take place and Machar does arrive in Juba to take up his old job of 1st VP and PM, the pact will have ended a war begun in late 2013 (see the background in omt18SudanS-2Nov15).But on Feb. 29 a Mashar deputy Aggrey Idri deplored the economic conditions in the RSS, saying even state employees were reduced to "beggars". Prices of basic commodities have more than quadrupled in the country, with the exchange rate between the US dollar and the RSS pound (SSP) having reached 40 SSPs per $1.

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Publication:APS Review Oil Market Trends
Date:Feb 29, 2016
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