Printer Friendly

Slight '95 downturn expected, but noncaptives could gain.

Overall casting demand will dip slightly in 1995, but with possible gains in some sectors, according to metalcasting consumers interviewed for our soon-to-b published annual forecast.

Despite lower demand in some market sectors, noncaptive and jobbing foundries could benefit from the combination of increased exports, lower imports, and the closing and shrinking of captive casting operations. When using the formula Shipments = Demand + Exports - Imports - Captive Production for all market sectors, it's evident that lower "demand" forecasts can be offset by other factors that will actually mean gains in "shipments."

Export/import conditions continue to improve, based on the continued weak dolla and the improvement in world economies forecasted in 1995. The recovery in Europe is showing signs of beginning in most market sectors, with an overall forecast for a 2.5% growth in gross domestic product for the 13 European Community countries.

The continued strength of the deutschmark and other European currencies, combined with improved productivity from U.S. manufacturers, has meant an increase in exports to these countries and decreases in imports from them.

Meanwhile, the superior productivity of U.S. foundries has offset the low labor rates and competitive advantage of Third World countries.

The closing of captive foundries in the U.S. and Canada is creating rising participation by noncaptive foundries. For example, the closing of GM's St. Catharines (Ontario) foundry, John Deere's Silvis plant and the sale of Case's Oklahoma facility has made more than 400,000 tons of iron castings available to noncaptive foundries.

The scheduled closing of GM's Danville (Illinois) foundry in early 1996 and proposed shrinking of captive operations at other major captive works also are expected to open further markets to efficient noncaptive foundries.

The table lists the forecasted casting demand, shipments, imports, exports, captive production and the tonnage available for sale by noncaptive foundries t selected markets in the U.S. The total Demand and For Sale tonnage in these selected markets in 1994 is expected to reach 7.61 million and 5.1 million, respectively. The 1995 forecast calls for 7.47 million Demand tons and 5.4 million For Sale tons.

Based on this preliminary analysis, the Demand for castings is 147,000 tons les in 1995, while the For Sale tonnage available to noncaptive foundries is 300,00 more than 1994. From this sample, it can be estimated that the Demand for metal castings is to decrease by 3-4% in 1995, while castings For Sale by noncaptive operations could increase 4-5% over 1994. This analysis will continue and be reported in our annual forecast.
Projected 1995 Demand for Metal Castings (000 tons)

Market Met Demand Shpts Imports Exports Captive For Sale
 (**)

Valves GI 261 256 50 45 91 215
 DI 196 192 29 25 100 121
 MI 53 46 15 8 40 21
 St 91 88 13 10 13 88
 Br 103 99 12 8 55 56

Engines GI 475 475 38 38 260 253
(*) DI 87 85 9 7 0 94
 AI 92 90 12 9 41 60

Farm GI 273 270 27 24 170 127
Equipment DI 99 97 12 10 0 109

Const/ GI 271 274 27 26 108 189
Mining/Oil DI 191 193 20 21 13 200
 St 261 258 23 20 16 265

Machine GI 118 118 6 6 20 104
Tool

Special GI 206 206 10 10 30 186
Mach DI 95 95 6 6 15 86

Pumps/ GI 227 225 18 16 40 203
Comprs DI 81 80 7 6 14 73
 St 29 29 3 3 6 26

Car/Lt Trck GI 2015 2055 161 201 940 1276
 DI 1037 1058 83 104 360 781
 AI 911 911 137 137 300 748

Med/Hvy GI 91 90 7 8 40 59
Truck DI 146 143 13 16 60 102
 St 57 56 5 4 30 31

(*) Includes nonauto diesel and small gasoline engines only.

(**) Calculated as Demand + Exports Captive as available for sale. Imports are
included as available for sale.
COPYRIGHT 1994 American Foundry Society, Inc.
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 1994, Gale Group. All rights reserved. Gale Group is a Thomson Corporation Company.

Article Details
Printer friendly Cite/link Email Feedback
Title Annotation:noncaptive foundries; downturn in demand for metal castings in 1995
Author:Kirgin, Kenneth H.
Publication:Modern Casting
Date:Sep 1, 1994
Words:661
Previous Article:Mechanical penetration defects.
Next Article:Variable pay: linking salary to performance.
Topics:


Related Articles
1990 metalcasting forecast: solid performance for another year.
A global look at the metalcasting industry.
1996 slowdown sets stage for '97 resurgence.
Supply tightening in some classes.
Roadmap identifies foundry industry's top research needs.
Global conditions slowing demand.
Expansion slows, some areas strong.
Global Casting Report: Past, Present & Future.
Demand Decline to Continue.
Casting imports: what to expect in 2003.

Terms of use | Privacy policy | Copyright © 2020 Farlex, Inc. | Feedback | For webmasters