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Section V: The 1997 Chances of Lifetime Murder Victimization.

Introduction

Defined in the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Handbook as the highest-ranking crime in the crime hierarchy, murder generally is viewed by the public and law enforcement alike as the most serious crime in the Nation. Current statistics indicate that the murder rate in the country declined for six straight years to its lowest level since 1967. Despite national population increases, there were fewer reported murders in 1998 (16,910) than there were in 1971 (17,780). (See Table 5.1.) However, perhaps due in part to exposure resulting from media attention to high profile incidents such as school shootings and by political attention to gun-law reform, murder is a topic that continues to capture national interest.

In light of that interest, the purpose of this study is to investigate the statistical probability of being murdered. Comparisons to a similar study conducted in 1978 are used to illuminate changes in victimization characteristics of age, sex, and race over the last nineteen years. (1) Unlike the traditional examination of murder statistics that often focuses on murder rates (the number of persons out of 100,000 per population who are victims of murder), this study focuses on victimization rates that express the probability that one out of a certain number of people could become the victim of murder.

Data

This study, "The 1997 Chances of Lifetime Murder Victimization," is based on a compilation of data taken from the 1997 UCR Supplemental Homicide Report (SHR), (2) the finalized "United States Life Tables" for 1997 published by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), (3) and the 1997 United States population estimates provided by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. (4)

The primary data for this study come from the 1997 SHR, which collects, in addition to UCR Summary data, information on age, sex, and race of the victim when there is an incident involving murder. The SHR represents all age categories from '0' to '99+,' and the four race categories of White, Black, Asian or Pacific Islander, and American Indian or Alaskan Native. To make the data comparable to the life expectancy statistics of the NCHS, which distinguishes race only by Black and White, the SHR Asian or Pacific Islander and American Indian or Alaskan Native categories were combined to create the "Other" race category. Any unknown classifications in the SHR data were excluded from the study (n=193). As was done in the 1978 study, the 1997 SHR was proportionally adjusted to match the number of murders reported in the Summary Return A database. Age-specific murder rates for 1997 and 1978 can be found in Appendixes A and B.

Population statistics, broken down by age, sex, and race for 1997, were obtained from the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Also, as was the case with the SHR data, for purposes of comparability the Asian or Pacific Islander and American Indian or Alaskan Native American race categories were totaled to create the "Other" race category.

Life expectancy or survival data for 1997 were gathered from the "United States Life Tables" (Life Tables) published by the NCHS. These tables provide a cross-section of the mortality experiences of a hypothetical cohort (based on a population of 100,000 people) (See Life Tables for discussion of methodology) (5). In its Life Tables the NCHS racially divides the U.S. population by only Whites and Blacks. The total U.S. population Life Tables (representing the national average) were used in computations involving victimization chances for the Other category. Prior to 1997 the NCHS computed life expectancy yearly for age categories up to age 85, then aggregated all age groups 85 and older. In 1997 the NCHS used a new methodology to compute life expectancies separating the aggregated ages through age 99 into one-year categories. Since, at the time of this study, the most recently published Life Tables are those for 1997, this year was used to define the study timeframe.

Methodology

Age-specific murder rates ([R.sub.a]) were computed for each age, sex, and race representing the number of victims per 100,000 inhabitants of age 'a' who were murdered. These rates were then applied to the number of survivors for age 'a' using the Life Tables from the NCHS. This produces three groups of people per age group: survivors ([S.sub.a]), murder victims ([M.sub.a]), and those who died from causes other than murder ([D.sub.a]). The following equation expresses this relationship:

[S.sub.a-1] = [S.sub.a] + [M.sub.a] + [D.sub.a] where [M.sub.a] = ([S.sub.a-1] * [R.sub.a])/100,000

The cumulative total of murder victims for each age group ([M.sub.0] + [M.sub.1] + [M.sub.2] + ... + [M.sub.99]) represents the number of expected murder victims over the lifetime for a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 individuals who are born alive. When the number of survivors in a particular age category ([S.sub.a-1]) is divided by this cumulative total ([M.sub.a] + [M.sub.a+1] + ... + [M.sub.99]), the resulting number is the reciprocal odds ratio for victimization likelihood. Therefore, if the resulting number is 50, then there is a 1 in 50 chance a person in that category will be murdered.

Findings

The results of the study are found in Table 5.2 where murder victimization rates are broken down by specific age categories. This table shows that males are more likely to be the victims of murder than females. Blacks show a higher probability of being murdered than their White and Other counterparts who have nearly equivalent victimization rates.

Age-specific murder rates shown in Appendix A indicate that murder victimization ratios in 1997 peaked during the early- to mid-twenties for all categories. (6) Compared to the 1978 study which shows murder rates peaking during the mid- to upper-twenties, the age at which murder probabilities peaked in 1997 shifted to slightly younger groups. (See Appendix B.)

A comparison of the 1978 study (Table 5.3) to the 1997 study demonstrates that, overall, chances of one becoming a murder victim in 1997 declined dramatically. (See Figures 5.3-5.6.) In 1997, one person out of every 207 of the total U.S. population would become the victim of a murder. In contrast, in 1978, one out of every 157 people would be murdered. Victimization rates declined faster in the Black category than in the White and declined faster for males than for females. (See Figures 5.3 and 5.4.) Because the 1978 study combined the Asian or Pacific Islander and American Indian or Alaskan Native into the Other race category, comparison to past counterparts could not be made.

[FIGURES 5.3-5.6 OMITTED]

By using Tables 5.4 and 5.5, the drop in murder victimization can be seen by examining the difference in the expected number of victims from 1978 to 1997. These tables show the number of people out of 100,000 who were expected to be murder victims. For example, the tables indicate that for 1997, 415 out of 100,000 white males were expected to be murder victims during their lifetime. The chances of victimization for all racial and gender categories decreased.

As shown in Table 5.6, the victimization ratio for all ages fell during the study timeframe. Victimization ratios for both sexes steadily declined until the age of 30 at which time the decrease became more dramatic when compared with the victimization odds for the same group in 1978. In 1997, for people aged 30, males less likely to be murdered than they were nineteen years previously--1 out of 283 down from 1 out of 164 for men and 1 out of 794 down from 1 out of 601 for women, a decrease of 42 and 24 percent respectively.

The overall victimization odds for a white person decreased from 1 out of 287 in 1978 to 1 out of 353 in 1997. As with age, victimization differed between men and women . A white male's likelihood for victimization at birth was 1 out of 241 in 1997, a 23 percent decrease on average from 1 out of 186 in 1978. A white female's likelihood, at 1 out of 684 in 1997, showed only an eleven percent decrease from 1978, 1 out of 606. The decrease in odds victimization for white females showed the lowest change of all categories.

As demonstrated in Table 5.6, black victimization rates showed the most dramatic trend of all racial categories. In 1978, 1 out of every 48 of the Other category (the majority of whom were black) could expect to be murdered during the course of a lifetime. By 1997, the rates changed to 1 out of every 58, an 18 percent decrease in the chance of murder victimization. For black persons over the age of 30, the rates decreased from 40 to 50 percent, from 1 out of 71 to 1 out of 125. For black persons aged 50, at 1 out of 379 down from 1 out of 185 in 1978, the decline was most dramatic--a 51 percent decrease.

Data by race indicate that black males, with a victimization ratio of 1 out of 35, were most likely to be murdered in 1997. Black females, with a victimization ratio of 1 out of 171, were the next most likely to be murdered. Victimization chances for white males (1 out of 241) and males in the Other category (1 out of 248) were similar. Females in the other category were murdered at rates of 1 out of 611 and white females were murdered least often at rates of 1 out of 684.

Conclusion

In general, the age-specific murder rates and sharp decline in victimization after the mid-twenties indicate that from 1978 to 1997 the peak age for murder victimization has shifted to a slightly younger age group. It can also be seen from this study that despite the fact that the murder rate has reached a 30-year low, there is still a discrepancy in victimization between sex and race (See Figures 5.1 and 5.2). In all categories, males are more likely than females to be murdered. Black males are the most likely to be murder victims and white females the least likely; however, if the current rates of decline were to continue there could come a time where the chance of murder victimization would neutralize and show no differences between sex and race.
Appendix A

1997 Age-Specific Murder Rates

Age US Total Male Female White White White
 Male Female

 0 7.12 8.36 5.82 5.19 6.74 3.55
 1 4.09 3.91 4.28 2.62 2.33 2.93
 2 2.42 2.45 2.32 1.35 1.20 1.42
 3 1.63 1.95 1.30 1.19 1.34 1.02
 4 0.94 0.69 1.21 0.64 0.66 0.61
 5 0.72 0.96 0.47 0.40 0.64 0.15
 6 0.57 0.50 0.65 0.40 0.50 0.30
 7 0.46 0.34 0.59 0.26 0.14 0.37
 8 0.56 0.61 0.51 0.51 0.54 0.49
 9 0.59 0.64 0.55 0.45 0.37 0.54
10 0.42 0.47 0.37 0.38 0.37 0.39
11 0.58 0.89 0.25 0.54 0.89 0.16
12 0.73 0.72 0.75 0.42 0.30 0.55
13 1.25 1.46 1.02 0.63 0.77 0.48
14 2.18 3.07 1.25 1.15 1.49 0.79
15 4.44 6.83 1.91 2.35 3.24 1.41
16 9.34 15.39 2.89 4.71 7.55 1.67
17 12.87 21.88 3.20 6.43 10.50 2.02
18 17.83 29.95 4.94 8.88 14.25 3.12
19 18.75 32.36 4.35 8.33 12.69 3.66
20 20.24 34.42 5.19 9.80 16.20 2.91
21 20.20 35.48 3.96 9.91 16.07 3.27
22 18.47 30.70 5.53 9.03 14.11 3.57
23 19.27 32.73 5.19 8.51 13.55 3.15
24 18.10 30.22 5.57 8.32 12.77 3.63
25 16.21 27.64 4.52 7.57 12.40 2.54
26 14.76 24.28 5.22 7.29 11.25 3.25
27 13.82 23.31 4.25 7.17 11.90 2.32
28 11.94 19.57 4.29 6.95 10.90 2.91
29 10.69 18.06 3.29 6.14 9.92 2.26
30 12.41 19.67 5.19 7.27 11.04 3.42
31 10.47 15.83 5.16 5.30 7.59 2.97
32 10.25 15.91 4.63 6.18 9.21 3.12
33 9.88 15.19 4.63 5.71 8.07 3.32
34 9.52 14.60 4.42 5.67 8.29 2.98
35 9.54 14.17 4.92 5.51 7.81 3.17
36 8.53 12.55 4.53 4.86 6.87 2.83
37 8.10 12.01 4.20 5.26 7.63 2.85
38 8.74 13.24 4.29 5.24 7.53 2.91
39 6.12 9.11 3.14 3.34 4.69 1.97
40 7.04 10.43 3.68 4.27 6.31 2.21
41 7.17 10.88 3.52 4.32 6.35 2.28
42 6.79 10.94 2.71 4.09 6.46 1.71
43 6.26 9.37 3.24 4.05 6.07 2.03
44 5.65 8.26 3.07 3.71 5.53 1.88
45 6.52 10.53 2.61 4.68 7.47 1.88
46 5.53 8.03 3.11 3.53 4.83 2.25
47 5.36 8.62 2.23 3.36 5.40 1.35
48 5.50 8.27 2.85 3.31 4.69 1.97
49 4.93 7.00 2.93 3.69 4.86 2.54
50 4.20 6.44 2.04 2.78 4.09 1.50
51 4.18 6.74 1.74 2.90 4.58 1.28
52 4.57 6.64 2.61 4.02 5.89 2.22
53 4.08 6.35 1.94 3.43 4.94 1.99
54 3.27 5.14 1.51 2.07 3.39 0.79
55 3.39 5.90 1.06 2.26 3.65 0.94
56 3.99 6.33 1.83 3.15 4.88 1.51
57 3.55 5.44 1.80 2.59 4.04 1.23
58 2.89 3.91 1.95 2.16 2.94 1.44
59 3.90 5.46 2.47 3.17 4.31 2.09
60 3.17 5.89 0.74 2.20 4.20 0.37
61 3.14 4.70 1.74 1.85 3.03 0.76
62 3.40 5.28 1.72 2.36 3.43 1.38
63 2.84 4.33 1.49 2.16 3.34 1.07
64 2.48 4.04 1.11 1.51 2.32 0.78
65 2.56 3.74 1.55 2.07 2.96 1.30
66 2.50 3.92 1.29 1.67 2.88 0.62
67 2.57 4.31 1.08 1.94 3.30 0.75
68 2.27 3.93 0.90 1.68 3.06 0.52
69 2.33 3.86 1.08 1.82 2.85 0.99
70 2.50 3.53 1.69 1.84 2.70 1.15
71 2.86 4.59 1.50 2.34 3.48 1.44
72 2.14 3.55 1.04 1.74 2.63 1.04
73 2.28 3.36 1.45 1.92 2.47 1.49
74 2.79 4.70 1.37 2.32 3.36 1.54
75 2.22 2.20 2.24 1.67 1.50 1.80
76 1.90 2.52 1.44 1.51 1.58 1.46
77 2.43 4.47 1.00 2.05 3.82 0.80
78 2.38 3.93 1.33 1.76 2.65 1.15
79 1.81 2.65 1.26 1.48 1.87 1.23
80 2.02 3.85 0.87 1.64 3.01 0.77
81 2.53 3.04 2.23 2.14 2.32 2.04
82 3.12 3.38 2.97 2.46 1.85 2.82
83 2.46 4.22 1.49 2.25 4.20 1.17
84 1.51 2.20 1.15 1.51 2.44 1.02
85 2.94 3.83 2.49 2.01 3.60 1.21
86 3.96 3.26 4.28 3.66 2.88 4.02
87 2.63 3.87 2.07 2.37 3.43 1.89
88 3.32 7.44 1.57 2.73 5.14 1.72
89 2.89 3.39 2.69 2.83 2.51 2.95
90 2.33 5.69 1.07 1.71 3.18 1.17
91 3.27 1.79 3.79 3.62 2.01 4.18
92 2.73 4.34 2.19 3.04 4.95 2.42
93 2.08 5.71 0.92 2.32 6.50 1.01
94 0.89 0.00 1.16 1.00 0.00 1.29
95 4.85 5.32 4.71 4.06 0.00 5.21
96 2.86 6.57 1.83 1.64 7.86 0.00
97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
98 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
99+ 5.33 22.30 1.62 6.25 27.91 1.88

Age Black Black Black Other Other Other
 Male Female Male Female

 0 16.72 16.89 16.54 5.26 5.19 5.34
 1 12.03 12.49 11.55 3.25 4.27 2.20
 2 7.57 9.27 5.81 3.30 2.17 4.44
 3 4.52 5.81 3.19 0.00 0.00 0.00
 4 2.77 1.09 4.51 0.00 0.00 0.00
 5 2.20 2.16 2.23 1.06 2.06 0.00
 6 1.28 0.72 1.86 1.08 0.00 2.22
 7 1.27 1.07 1.47 0.57 0.00 1.17
 8 0.77 0.75 0.78 0.61 1.18 0.00
 9 1.28 2.16 0.37 0.57 0.00 1.18
10 0.57 1.12 0.00 0.59 0.00 1.22
11 0.59 0.78 0.40 0.59 1.15 0.00
12 2.37 2.72 2.01 0.58 1.14 0.00
13 3.89 4.44 3.33 2.27 3.35 1.15
14 7.92 11.66 4.04 0.55 1.09 0.00
15 14.80 24.14 5.09 5.10 10.06 0.00
16 32.52 55.41 8.53 11.69 18.39 4.76
17 45.96 80.90 9.30 10.09 17.52 2.42
18 65.43 116.96 12.64 9.34 9.24 9.45
19 74.83 140.55 8.78 8.96 16.58 1.28
20 77.33 136.59 17.89 8.98 16.51 1.30
21 78.70 148.90 8.41 6.86 12.27 1.27
22 74.77 134.14 16.51 6.27 8.68 3.81
23 82.89 151.38 17.17 3.70 6.13 1.24
24 73.53 134.65 15.92 10.81 18.36 3.39
25 65.78 120.53 14.53 7.53 11.99 3.18
26 60.68 107.85 17.19 4.10 7.34 1.00
27 53.84 95.86 15.24 10.31 16.90 4.03
28 45.12 79.96 13.22 4.61 8.40 1.11
29 38.38 70.50 9.29 4.18 6.50 2.01
30 46.47 80.00 16.65 3.89 6.95 1.07
31 42.73 70.33 18.07 4.39 5.71 3.17
32 36.90 63.00 13.82 4.86 6.71 3.14
33 37.11 64.34 13.29 5.45 10.18 1.05
34 35.21 59.71 13.39 2.55 5.20 0.00
35 36.22 59.62 15.35 3.74 4.37 3.14
36 34.08 55.25 15.58 3.84 5.65 2.13
37 27.23 43.61 12.73 4.85 6.70 3.12
38 32.23 55.32 11.94 6.55 8.68 4.58
39 24.98 40.47 11.04 3.72 6.57 1.03
40 25.22 41.13 11.13 4.43 4.61 4.27
41 28.21 46.45 12.36 2.26 3.57 1.08
42 26.13 45.41 9.29 2.38 3.74 1.14
43 22.99 36.78 11.06 2.96 2.53 3.34
44 19.32 29.36 10.46 4.53 4.14 4.89
45 20.46 34.39 8.54 4.05 8.67 0.00
46 20.49 34.04 9.16 3.46 5.93 1.30
47 18.97 32.27 7.85 5.99 9.96 2.50
48 21.99 39.42 7.57 6.20 6.66 5.80
49 14.31 24.32 5.82 4.93 7.50 2.66
50 16.43 28.61 6.35 4.67 6.60 2.95
51 15.36 27.81 5.26 1.84 3.89 0.00
52 10.19 15.49 5.90 0.99 0.00 1.87
53 11.15 22.25 2.23 0.00 0.00 0.00
54 12.50 21.66 5.10 6.26 6.65 5.92
55 11.83 25.61 0.76 3.42 2.41 4.33
56 11.31 19.68 4.97 2.46 5.17 0.00
57 9.34 14.89 4.99 3.75 7.91 0.00
58 9.96 13.94 6.87 1.45 3.07 0.00
59 9.63 16.21 4.50 3.94 2.79 4.95
60 11.07 20.62 3.88 4.34 9.28 0.00
61 13.87 18.97 10.07 3.10 6.72 0.00
62 12.01 24.21 2.98 3.15 3.45 2.89
63 8.70 15.85 3.28 1.70 0.00 3.08
64 10.81 19.87 3.99 1.63 3.76 0.00
65 5.72 10.84 1.98 3.53 0.00 6.23
66 9.45 12.14 7.35 0.00 0.00 0.00
67 8.53 14.46 4.21 1.91 4.51 0.00
68 8.73 14.07 4.71 0.00 0.00 0.00
69 7.43 14.23 2.36 2.05 4.96 0.00
70 8.43 13.62 4.78 4.36 0.00 7.57
71 8.37 16.68 2.58 2.34 5.49 0.00
72 6.67 14.20 1.42 2.36 5.57 0.00
73 6.37 13.81 1.50 2.66 6.32 0.00
74 9.02 22.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
75 8.38 11.68 6.20 3.04 0.00 5.25
76 7.26 15.78 1.71 0.00 0.00 0.00
77 7.60 14.07 3.53 0.00 0.00 0.00
78 10.46 21.80 3.71 0.00 0.00 0.00
79 2.44 6.47 0.00 13.43 20.97 7.81
80 7.57 17.15 2.34 0.00 0.00 0.00
81 8.52 14.61 5.24 0.00 0.00 0.00
82 11.04 26.91 2.79 6.46 0.00 11.17
83 5.97 6.05 5.93 0.00 0.00 0.00
84 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.35 0.00 12.72
85 16.86 8.41 21.09 0.00 0.00 0.00
86 8.95 9.56 8.67 0.00 0.00 0.00
87 6.54 10.56 4.73 0.00 0.00 0.00
88 11.73 38.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
89 4.37 15.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
90 10.12 35.92 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
91 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
92 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
93 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
94 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
95 14.77 56.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
96 13.44 0.00 18.10 0.00 0.00 0.00
97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
98 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
99+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Appendix B

1978 Age-Specific Murder Rates

Age US Total Male Female White

 0 6.83 7.32 6.20 4.72
 1 3.16 3.21 2.97 1.84
 2 4.28 5.08 3.38 2.92
 3 2.63 3.08 2.08 1.56
 4 1.72 1.75 1.62 1.13
 5 1.26 1.58 0.92 0.91
 6 1.00 1.07 0.93 0.74
 7 1.11 1.03 1.19 0.67
 8 0.91 0.73 1.05 0.65
 9 0.66 0.85 0.41 4.48
10 0.84 0.77 0.86 0.51
11 0.97 0.61 1.28 0.75
12 1.02 1.18 0.84 0.86
13 1.48 1.27 1.64 0.93
14 2.54 2.78 2.24 2.07
15 3.55 4.63 2.36 2.56
16 5.57 7.10 3.86 3.80
17 8.56 12.86 3.92 5.82
18 10.78 14.93 5.98 6.82
19 12.91 19.01 5.79 8.47
20 14.10 20.86 6.14 9.18
21 16.29 24.03 7.18 9.07
22 17.84 26.72 7.83 9.83
23 18.13 27.39 7.94 10.68
24 17.27 26.33 7.56 8.77
25 17.89 28.35 7.26 9.88
26 18.85 29.60 7.38 10.10
27 18.66 30.01 6.77 9.75
28 18.97 29.11 8.35 11.04
29 16.30 26.73 5.57 9.59
30 15.65 24.60 6.36 8.04
31 12.85 20.39 4.97 7.43
32 17.58 27.79 7.04 9.93
33 14.35 23.83 4.80 8.39
34 14.02 21.94 6.02 6.91
35 14.20 23.42 4.88 8.33
36 12.94 20.76 5.09 7.85
37 14.16 23.37 5.00 7.44
38 15.50 25.72 5.34 9.16
39 13.46 20.85 6.06 8.01
40 15.69 25.43 6.13 9.12
41 12.09 19.38 5.02 6.82
42 14.27 22.27 6.36 9.35
43 12.10 18.97 5.33 7.54
44 10.56 17.26 4.01 6.56
45 12.10 20.03 4.40 8.04
46 10.45 17.25 3.81 6.09
47 10.32 15.97 4.68 7.11
48 8.93 14.86 3.19 5.85
49 9.29 15.55 3.27 6.70
50 11.68 19.84 3.89 7.74
51 7.81 12.35 3.46 5.08
52 9.41 15.51 3.66 5.98
53 7.72 13.23 2.55 4.80
54 8.13 12.74 3.82 5.72
55 8.26 13.96 2.96 5.29
56 7.20 12.35 2.38 4.75
57 7.19 11.84 2.82 4.85
58 7.01 12.01 2.46 5.01
59 6.06 9.67 2.71 3.49
60 6.32 11.01 2.01 3.96
61 7.04 11.67 2.80 5.59
62 6.54 9.94 3.33 4.30
63 5.44 8.94 2.29 4.37
64 5.77 8.74 3.13 3.86
65 5.74 9.00 2.93 4.25
66 4.95 8.13 2.27 3.76
67 5.30 9.23 2.08 3.83
68 4.81 7.27 2.79 3.33
69 4.57 8.07 1.90 3.02
70 5.04 8.45 2.47 2.96
71 3.16 4.33 2.30 2.65
72 5.26 7.82 3.26 4.38
73 4.74 6.89 3.05 3.79
74 4.40 6.80 2.55 3.24
75 4.93 7.07 3.29 3.32
76 5.57 6.26 4.93 4.07
77 4.95 6.38 4.05 3.76
78 5.88 7.98 4.38 3.90
79 4.32 5.03 3.67 3.89
80 5.52 7.11 4.35 4.57
81 2.92 1.89 3.50 2.42
82 5.31 7.03 4.10 4.46
83 4.58 6.04 3.80 3.15
84 4.75 5.09 4.57 3.55
85+ 4.21 5.08 3.49 3.53

Age White White Other Other Other
 Male Female Male Female

 0 5.31 4.27 16.63 16.96 1.63
 1 1.87 1.81 8.52 9.47 8.27
 2 3.77 2.11 10.29 11.11 9.09
 3 1.87 1.15 7.56 8.75 5.97
 4 1.26 0.99 4.22 4.00 4.08
 5 1.08 0.73 2.65 3.84 1.42
 6 0.87 0.60 2.03 2.02 2.04
 7 0.72 0.61 3.20 2.53 3.54
 8 0.47 0.77 2.07 2.06 2.09
 9 0.75 0.28 1.38 1.72 1.04
10 0.60 0.41 2.14 1.63 2.64
11 0.40 1.05 1.89 1.71 2.07
12 0.77 0.95 1.62 3.21 0.00
13 0.79 1.14 4.08 3.76 4.10
14 2.34 1.79 4.64 4.74 4.24
15 3.32 1.76 8.52 11.50 5.45
16 4.80 2.74 14.73 19.34 9.72
17 8.14 3.41 22.58 38.23 6.60
18 9.38 4.19 31.01 46.10 15.95
19 12.67 4.29 34.52 55.41 14.28
20 13.72 4.56 38.56 62.65 14.98
21 13.81 4.26 53.73 85.33 23.73
22 15.03 4.57 60.20 97.50 26.05
23 16.33 5.01 58.64 96.60 24.57
24 13.70 3.85 66.18 108.52 28.71
25 15.03 4.74 65.13 113.52 22.30
26 15.62 4.60 72.24 127.87 24.24
27 16.04 3.50 70.61 123.17 25.54
28 16.65 5.44 67.81 116.90 25.98
29 15.83 3.38 57.72 103.27 18.72
30 12.29 3.77 63.08 110.52 22.26
31 11.15 3.68 53.16 98.46 14.28
32 15.44 4.34 67.13 118.51 23.71
33 13.79 3.04 52.47 96.36 15.50
34 10.28 3.62 59.78 106.39 20.87
35 13.75 3.02 55.92 101.21 18.18
36 12.02 3.79 46.62 86.36 13.36
37 12.44 2.59 57.79 104.08 20.00
38 15.66 2.91 56.67 101.45 20.00
39 11.81 4.36 49.66 89.55 16.86
40 13.91 4.50 59.93 112.78 16.46
41 10.41 3.35 47.40 87.59 15.09
42 14.40 4.47 47.36 82.03 18.47
43 11.44 3.74 42.30 74.61 15.38
44 10.67 2.69 36.52 65.11 12.33
45 13.01 3.26 38.54 70.45 11.61
46 9.54 2.74 41.11 76.00 10.34
47 10.35 4.07 32.96 59.84 8.90
48 8.92 2.91 30.27 59.12 4.45
49 10.81 2.77 28.41 53.17 6.20
50 12.51 3.19 41.94 79.83 8.39
51 7.69 2.61 29.11 51.23 9.28
52 9.92 2.39 36.09 62.60 13.28
53 8.51 1.34 31.17 53.27 11.42
54 8.65 3.00 28.16 49.55 9.84
55 8.33 2.49 33.06 64.03 6.06
56 7.82 1.92 29.00 55.14 6.50
57 7.73 2.19 28.18 49.51 8.47
58 8.51 1.90 23.43 41.96 6.25
59 5.13 2.11 29.12 52.08 8.18
60 6.82 1.38 28.80 52.94 7.07
61 8.85 2.65 21.51 41.02 4.25
62 6.76 2.11 28.23 42.85 15.05
63 7.08 1.99 14.91 26.82 5.05
64 6.14 2.02 22.77 33.33 13.13
65 6.23 2.72 17.36 33.73 4.67
66 5.67 2.19 14.51 29.62 2.88
67 6.42 1.66 15.84 30.68 4.38
68 5.06 2.09 15.46 24.70 8.25
69 5.86 0.86 18.18 28.35 10.34
70 5.19 1.29 24.28 39.34 12.65
71 3.80 1.81 7.75 9.80 6.15
72 6.36 3.10 12.84 20.40 5.08
73 5.36 2.53 13.86 21.27 7.27
74 4.95 2.05 162.85 27.77 6.97
75 4.39 2.60 22.22 37.5 10.25
76 4.51 4.00 22.80 28.00 18.75
77 5.42 2.73 15.78 14.70 16.66
78 4.27 3.90 24.65 40.00 10.00
79 5.06 3.20 7.84 9.52 6.66
80 6.31 3.59 14.89 21.05 10.71
81 1.56 2.91 6.38 5.26 7.14
82 6.14 3.57 12.24 20.00 6.89
83 3.06 3.19 17.02 31.57 6.89
84 4.22 3.21 15.00 13.33 16.00
85+ 4.91 3.78 8.52 8.97 8.27

Table 5.1

Total U.S. Population, Murder Rate, and
Number of Murders by Year

Year Population Rate Murders

1960 179,323,175 5.1 9,110
1961 182,992,000 4.8 8,740
1962 185,771,000 4.6 8,530
1963 188,483,000 4.6 8,640
1964 191,141,000 4.9 9,360
1965 193,526,000 5.1 9,960
1966 195,576,000 5.6 11,040
1967 197,457,000 6.2 12,240
1968 199,399,000 6.9 13,800
1969 201,385,000 7.3 14,760
1970 203,235,298 7.9 16,000
1971 206,212,000 8.6 17,780
1972 208,230,000 9.0 18,670
1973 209,851,000 9.4 19,640
1974 211,392,000 9.8 20,710
1975 213,124,000 9.6 20,510
1976 214,659,000 8.8 18,780
1977 216,332,000 8.8 19,120
1978 218,059,000 9.0 19,560
1979 220,099,000 9.7 21,460
1980 225,349,264 10.2 23,040
1981 229,146,000 9.8 22,520
1982 231,534,000 9.1 21,010
1983 233,981,000 8.3 19,310
1984 236,158,000 7.9 18,690
1985 238,740,000 7.9 18,980
1986 241,077,000 8.6 20,610
1987 243,400,000 8.3 20,100
1988 245,807,000 8.4 20,680
1989 248,239,000 8.7 21,500
1990 248,709,873 9.4 23,440
1991 252,177,000 9.8 24,700
1992 255,082,000 9.3 23,760
1993 257,908,000 9.5 24,530
1994 260,341,000 9.0 23,330
1995 262,755,000 8.2 21,610
1996 265,284,000 7.4 19,650
1997 267,637,000 6.8 18,210
1998 270,296,000 6.3 16,910

Table 5.2

1997 Lifetime Victimization Rate By Murder (5 Year Interval)

Age US Total Male Female White White White
 Male Female

 0 207 133 477 353 241 684
 5 214 136 512 367 248 731
10 215 137 519 370 249 741
15 217 138 529 373 251 753
20 250 160 581 420 284 825
25 328 216 680 517 356 953
30 419 283 794 629 442 1088
35 534 364 976 772 544 1309
40 678 462 1221 941 663 1588
45 860 589 1509 1152 820 1876
50 1109 766 1875 1439 1032 2280
55 1388 970 2249 1792 1304 2714
60 1752 1236 2724 2249 1660 3259
65 2203 1600 3155 2704 2076 3597
70 2686 2012 3582 3217 2607 3896
75 3376 2622 4167 3997 3338 4585
80 4009 3105 4796 4595 3774 5228

Age Black Black Black Other Other Other
 Male Female Male Female

 0 58 35 171 355 248 611
 5 60 35 184 370 255 658
10 60 35 186 375 257 678
15 60 35 189 381 261 688
20 70 41 206 459 318 783
25 95 57 243 548 394 855
30 125 76 290 656 489 943
35 164 101 368 756 584 1020
40 217 133 481 905 709 1183
45 286 174 638 1050 802 1419
50 379 231 826 1387 1133 1692
55 477 269 998 1664 1355 2021
60 585 354 1204 2112 1791 2397
65 774 464 1552 2774 2787 2640
70 953 544 2012 3130 3236 2982
75 1173 690 2099 4155 5683 3393
80 1462 856 2375 8404 N/A 4749

* Table shows only 80 years of age because the low number
of U.S. citizens and murders occurring in age groups over
the age of 80 may improperly inflate odds ratios and murder
rate and may not reflect the true nature of murder in
these groups.

* Based on 1997 murder rates, which may not remain constant
over time.

* There were no reported murders for Other males aged 80
and older in 1997.

Table 5.3

1978 Lifetime Victimization Rate By Murder (10 Year Interval) *

 US
Age Population Male Female White White Male

 0 157 110 373 287 186
10 160 110 392 289 187
20 172 116 428 311 199
30 242 164 601 429 275
40 365 255 837 626 407
50 602 444 1247 1044 683
60 1021 846 1717 1869 1262

Age White Female Other Total Other Male Other Female

 0 606 48 29 124
10 628 48 28 129
20 701 50 30 139
30 957 71 41 205
40 1342 112 66 315
50 2049 185 114 468
60 2958 337 225 666

* As in Table 2, the numbers in these table cells indicate
that 1 out of said number will be a victim of murder for
the given age, race, and gender.

Table 5.4

Expected Number of Lifetime Murder
Victims in 1997 *

 Both Sexes Male Female

All Races 483 750 210
 White 283 415 146
 Black 1711 2888 585
 Other 282 404 164

* From hypothetical cohort of 100,000. (See page 279.)

Table 5.5

Expected Number of Lifetime Murder
Victims for 1978 *

 Both Sexes Male Female

All Races 636 912 268
 White 349 538 165
 Other 2088 3460 806

* From hypothetical cohort of 100,000. (See page 279.)

Table 5.6

Percent Decrease in Lifetime Murder Victimization
(1997 vs. 1978)

Age US Male Female White White
 Total Male

 0 24 18 22 19 23
10 26 20 25 22 25
20 31 28 26 26 30
30 42 42 24 32 38
40 46 45 31 33 39
50 46 42 34 27 34
60 42 32 37 17 24

Age White Female Black Black Black Female
 Male

 0 11 18 16 28
10 15 20 20 31
20 15 28 27 32
30 12 43 46 29
40 15 48 50 35
50 10 51 51 43
60 9 42 36 45


(1) Yoshio Akiyama, Lifetime Victimization Rate by Murder, Uniform Reporting Section, Presented to Director William H. Webster at the First Semiannual Briefing on Crime, Federal Bureau of Investigation, April 1978.

(2) The SHR is fully described in the Uniform Crime Reporting Handbook.

(3) Robert N. Anderson, "United States Life Tables, 1997," National Vital Statistics Reports, National Center for Health Statistics of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Vol. 47, No. 28, December 1999, pp. 6-23.

(4) United States Bureau of the Census Web Site at http://www.census.gov.

(5) Robert N. Anderson, "United States Life Tables, 1997," National Vital Statistics Reports, National Center for Health Statistics of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Vol. 47, No. 28, December 1999, pp. 1-6.

(6) Due to the low numbers of murders and low population occurring in the Other category, some of the rates may be inflated and may not accurately represent the true murder rate for the population.
COPYRIGHT 1999 Federal Bureau of Investigation
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 1999, Gale Group. All rights reserved. Gale Group is a Thomson Corporation Company.

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Date:Jan 1, 1999
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