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Scanlon: end in sight for worst recession in years.

Recession wary New Yorkers, the worst just may be behind us.

That was the message Rosemary Scanlon, chief economist and assistant director of Planning and Development for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, delivered at a meeting of the Metropolitan New York Chapter of the Appraisal Institute at the Grand Hyatt.

Guardedly optimistic, Scanlon expects the economy will be well on its way to recovery by 1993.

Although Scanlon said we are still not out of the worst recession the New York area has seen in a long time, she told appraisers there are sign of recovery.

Among the most encouraging signs, according to Scanlon, are the gains being posted by Wall Street. The Financial Community has posted five straight quarters of profit, and continues to be strong into its sixth. Commissions are being paid and bonuses are back; a sign of restore activity and confidence in the market.

Another leading indicator Scanlon discussed was the housing market. Sales in the Northeast have improved, and new construction is beginning to strengthen. Scanlon forecasts that real estate prices will began to rise.

Scanlon also said retail sales, although only slightly improved, still provide further evidence that the economy is starting to turn around.

Inflation is down while tax revenues in the City have risen, Scanlon added. She believes that these signs indicate that our staggering economy may finally be on its way to recovery.

One possible threat to recovery Scanlon raised was the spread of recession to Japan and continental Europe. This would shrink international markets U.S. businesses depend upon. Scanlon fears this could stall a recovery, and cause our economy to lapse back into recession.
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Title Annotation:chief economist and assistant director of Planning and Development for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, Rosemary Scanlon addresses meeting of Metropolitan New York Chapter of Appraisal Institute
Publication:Real Estate Weekly
Date:Jun 3, 1992
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