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Ricom Trust - Share market commment, Jul 29, 2013.


Week promises to markets is very interesting investment horizons because of the rich to the events coming 5 working days - here and meeting all three major monetary regulators - the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England, and here and a possible worsening of the situation in the Middle East and Egypt, here and reluctance of Saudi Arabia change the level of production of raw materials.

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The oil market has maintained its neutral "sideways" movement, although support levels around $ 104 and $ 103 are very close. On another side is the resistance level near $ 110 a barrel. It is this level and separates the market from the new wave of trend growth.

In anticipation of the Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday strong changes in the Russian market can be expected, since everyone will be waiting for your controller about the prospects of quantitative easing. If you suddenly appear on the market new details about a potential decline in foreclosures in the QE, which the probability of the correction in the U.S. after the end of the reporting season will be very high. It seems that with such a scenario the Fed may start strong action to curb stimulus measures in September. It is possible that reinforce its position Fed chief will be fresh statistics,

which will come out in abundance this week: here and GDP data for the United States on Wednesday, here, and monthly data on unemployment and new jobs in the economy on Friday.

Of particular interest is the foreign exchange market, where the Russian ruble and can not enter into unidirectional motion due to the high volatility of the dollar against major currencies. While the probability of a breakthrough in the side 32 of the currency pair USD / RUB is still there, but with each passing day it becomes less and less. Wait a powerful strengthening of the ruble in the foreseeable future is not worth it.

Consolidation of the U.S. market close to historical highs suggests that investors took a wait until the end of the reporting season. As long as he is not completed, the S & P500 can still go above 1700 points, but to speak of a trend reversal in the direction of strong growth will be possible only after experiencing a level of 1,710 points.

Today begins a practical, rather than theoretical use of a new tool CB - auctions for bank loans at floating rate, secured by non-marketable assets and guarantees. This tool will help increase demand for the ruble is not yet clear, but to provide liquidity to the market of the Central Bank prefers not to increase, and, therefore, highly unlikely exchange rate gives way. While for the MICEX index level of 1380 points is still relevant because of the absence of clear signals the beginning of purchases. Prior to the meetings monetary regulators to take active steps dangerous.


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Publication:Russian Banks and Brokers Reports
Date:Jul 29, 2013
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