Regional manifestations of changes in atmospheric circulation in the central black earth region (by the example of Belgorod Region).
Change of the nature of circulation of the atmosphere causes essential influence on formation of weather conditions, to a large extent determining formation of extreme values of meteorological parameters.
This research considers the Central Black Earth region (CBER), located in the area of moderate continental climate. The prevailing circulation here if western (latitude) air-mass transport, conditioned by interaction of the Azores high and the Icelandic depression. Sometimes it is broken by development of meridional circulation, which causes large fluctuations and sharp changes in the course of meteorological elements [1, 2]. Depending on the duration and intensity of latitude or meridional types of circulation of the atmosphere there may periods be formed with extreme weather and climatic characteristics.
Using the calendar of consecutive change of elementary circulation mechanisms  and the everyday data of observations over the weather at the South of the Central Black Earth region , there was role of blocking highs in formation of hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena detected.
In accordance with the research  starting from 1899, 3 circulation epochs have changed: meridional North (1899-1915), characterized by positive deviations of the summary annual duration of meridional North (blocking) processes from their average one over 1899-2011; zonal (1916-1956); meridional South (from 1957 till now), characterized by positive deviations of the summary annual duration of the influence of South lows from the average multi-year parameter.
During the latest epoch there were periods of fast growth of the summary annual duration of the South lows distinguished (1981-1997). Simultaneously (from 1984) there was growth of the summary annual duration of the blocking processes distinguished, which in 2009 achieved the third maximum since 1899: 263 days a year (the first two were fixed in 1915 and 1969) .
The starting growth of meridional North circulation since 1998 [3, 5] forms the instability of the atmosphere and influences the regularity of meteorological extremes. The duration of South lows is fast reducing, though also in the present time it exceed the average duration over the period 1899-2011 by 40 days. Starting from 1999, growth of the average temperatures of the air has stopped, which coincides with the end of growth of the duration of the South circulation processes.
The evaluation, performed within the framework of realization of the state assignment of the Ministry of education and science of RF, by the Belgorod state national research university (project code: 185) of the observed climatic changes within the recent years, testifies to the fact of change of the frequency of extreme meteorological and climatic phenomena in graduation of Roshydromet .
Over the recent 15 years at the meteorological stations of Belgorod region there was 231 distinguished concerning hazardous meteorological weather phenomena (WP) in graduation of Roshydromet (Fig. 1). Out of them 117 cases of meteorological, and 114--argometeorological. The largest number of WP is <<Intense heat>> (82 cases), then comes <<Ground frost>> (53 cases) and <<Air frost>> (17 cases).
In the category <<Hazardous meteorological phenomena>> the share of processes has increased, which are connected with stationary highs: these are <<Intense heat>>--air temperature [greater than or equal to] 35[degrees]C, <<Intense frost>>--air temperature [less than or equal to]-35[degrees]C, <<Abnormally cold weather>> and <<Abnormally hot weather>>. Out of 82 cases, 35 cases of WP <<Intense heat>> were detected in July-August 2010.
Over the period under consideration the following meteorological WP were observed for the first time as <<Soil drought>>, as well as <<Atmospheric drought>>, <<Hot wind>>, which were almost not observed during the previous years (Fig. 2).
Evaluation of the temperature risks has shown that for the territory under study there are more characteristic risks, connected with positive extreme temperatures [7-10]. For the purpose of studying the circulation conditions, contributing to formation of these or those risks for each case of WP, elementary circulation mechanisms (ECM) detected during this time were analyzed under the classification of B.L.Dzerdzeyevskiy, selected from the calendar of consecutive change of ECM .
At the beginning of XX century, the absolute maximums of the air temperature in the region under study were connected with the latitude West transfer and spread in the CBER of the edges of the Azores highs. The regularity of the highs increased up to the middle of the century and during the period from 1931 to 1960 they were 1,5 times more than at the beginning of XX century (1901-1930) and at the end of the century (1971-2000).
The second process in order of importance, having reasoned maximum summer temperatures was the meriodional process 10 grades, the so called "arctic high", which stimulated carry-over of dry air masses into the South regions. Similar processes led to formation of extremely high summer temperatures in the region and were the most often in the period of 1931-1960. In the period of increase of the duration of blocking processes there were essential positive abnormal temperature in summer and abnormal negative abnormal temperature in winter observed, which led to the growth of the annual range of the air temperature. The minimum of the abnormal annual range of the air temperature was fixed in 1990 (-6,5[degrees]), and the maximum (9,5[degrees]) was fixed in 2010.
From 1998 growth of meridional North circulation and fall of meridional South circulation started. Reduction of the duration of certain ECM is observed (from 4-5 days in the first epoch up to 2 days in the third epoch), which testifies to the growth of instability in the atmosphere during XX century, having been reflected at the regularity of meteorological extremes. The data obtained clearly testify to the fact of increase of regularity of stationary high processes both 0 during the summer and the winter seasons (Fig. 3,4).
In accordance with the opinion of N.K.Kononova  growth of the summary annual duration of blocking processes, and, consequently, hot summer seasons and cold winter seasons may last for 15 years, after which, taking into account the duration of circulation epochs, it is possible to expect the subsequent warming.
During XX century significant changes took place in formation of the temperature mode of the Central Black Earth region and its extreme characteristics. The most continental the climate was during the period of 1931-1960. At this period of time there were long periods with extreme heat in summer observed and more probable as compared to the beginning and the end of the century there were intense frosts in winter. By the end of XX century the weather and the climate (first of all, occurrence of extreme temperatures) were formed by the stationary highs, both--in winter and in summer periods.
The scheme of development of circulation processes permits supposing that during the following 10-20 years the regularity of hazardous phenomena will be still increasing. Taking into account the sizes of synoptic objects, hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena are to be expected simultaneously in several RF entities. The most sensitive sectors of the national economy will be agriculture, housing and public utilities and transport.
Received 15 April 2014
Received in revised form 22 May 2014
Accepted 25 May 2014
Available online 15 June 2014
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(1) Aleksandr Nikolaevich Petin, (1) Maria Grigorievna Lebedeva, (1) Olga Vladimirovna Krymskaya, (1) Yuriy Georgievich Chendev, (1) Andrey Gennadievich Kornilov, (2) Antony Rokko Lupo
(1) Russia, SRI "BelGU", 85 Pobedy street, city of Belgorod 308015.
(2) USA, University Missouri, 302 Anheuser-Busch Natural Resources Building, Columbia, MO 65211-7250.
Corresponding Author: Aleksandr Nikolaevich Petin, Russia, SRI "BelGU", 85 Pobedy street, city of Belgorod 308015.
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|Author:||Petin, Aleksandr Nikolaevich; Lebedeva, Maria Grigorievna; Krymskaya, Olga Vladimirovna; Chendev, Yu|
|Publication:||Advances in Environmental Biology|
|Date:||Jun 1, 2014|
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