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Putting odds on a species breaking even.

Putting odds on a species breaking even

Two statisticians have developed a new computer model to help predict the fate of endangered species. Patricia L. Munholland of Montana State University in Bozeman and Brian Dennis of the University of Idaho in Moscow say their model takes into account the increased risk of extinctions due to random "bad years," including periods of extreme weather that can devastate already-diminished populations.

Among their predictions, given current management strategies for existing threatened or endangered species:

* Grizzly bears in Yellowstone National Park "are doomed" unless provided better protection. Their most likely year of extinction is 2070.

* Kirtland's warbler, already endangered, "is a goner."

* Whooping cranes "are in good shape."
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Title Annotation:computer model to predict the fate of endangered species
Author:Weiss, Rick
Publication:Science News
Date:Aug 11, 1990
Words:114
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