Propagation of ocean-driven ice-shelf thinning and consequences for the interior of Antarctica and global sea level.
By exploiting three important new advances in ice sheet modelling, and major new Antarctic-wide datasets, we aim to predict how far and how fast the observed ocean-driven thinning of floating ice shelves will propagate into the interior of the Antarctic ice sheet, and assess the consequences for global sea level over decadal-to-century timescales. Whereas previous studies have used simplified models, idealised forcing, or limited domains, we will use a comprehensively initialised model of ice flow throughout Antarctica, including all mechanical processes that propagate thinning into the interior, to produce a highly-realistic simulation that can predict the response of the grounded ice sheet to the ice-shelf thinning observed by satellite. We will validate the simulations against further satellite observations, before using them with scenarios of ice-shelf melt, guided by ocean models, to produce a probabilistic forecast of the future sea-level contribution from Antarctica to 2100.
Project completion date : 2020-03-31 12:00:00
Major organization : NERC BRITISH ANTARCTIC SURVEY
Address : High Cross, Madingley Rd, Cambridge CB3 0ET
Country :United Kingdom
Url : https://www.bas.ac.uk
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|Date:||Apr 1, 2019|
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