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 ST. LOUIS, June 29 /PRNewswire/ -- The chief economist of one of

the nation's leading brokerage firms said today that history shows presidential elections have little impact on basic market trends.
 Writing in the July issue of "Investment Strategy," Ray Worseck, chief economist of A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc., said, "Profits not presidents, guide the market in presidential election years."
 "In the last 25 election years, the market rose 76 percent of the time from June to December," he said. "That's very close to the market's behavior in all years."
 Worseck's analysis shows that even political anomalies such as third party candidates have little impact on the market. "The course of the economy is much more important to the market than the election.
 "In the three years in the last 100 years in which third-party candidacies were mounted and there was no threat of a recession, the market rose from June to December," he said.
 Worseck also noted that other political uncertainties have had less of an impact on the market than did the general state of the economy at the time.
 In the two instances -- 1800 and 1824 -- when the presidential election was decided by the House of Representatives, the market was higher in December than in June.
 The market's reaction when no candidate received a majority of the popular vote also is correlated to the economic conditions, according to Worseck.
 In three of the four years when no candidate received a majority, there was threat of a recession. The market declined from June to December in those years. In the fourth year, however, there was no threat of recession and the market rose.
 In the 10 elections when incumbent presidents sought re-election without a threat of recession, Worseck noted that the incumbent won eight times and the market rose in all eight years. In the two years when the incumbent lost, the market split, rising in one year and falling by only 1 percent from June to December in the other.
 Even the combination of a third-party candidate and the defeat of the incumbent president has been less important than the economy. Worseck said such a situation occurred twice when there was no threat of recession, but the market rose each time.
 Overall, Worseck said a recession has threatened in eight election years. The market declined in five years and rose in three.
 "The stock market still attempts to discount inflation and future earnings," and that is what influences the market, Worseck said.
 Although past performance is no guarantee of future happenings, Worseck urged the firm's clients to keep their eyes on long-term financial objectives and short-term value opportunities. He cautioned against putting an investment program on hold until the election is over or trying to guess the outcome and invest accordingly.
 "A well-designed investment program functions in spite of surprise events, not because of them," Worseck said.
 Worseck noted that the economy is still recovering and he expects corporate earnings to grow sharply in 1992 and again in 1993.
 Founded in 1887, A.G. Edwards & Sons has more than 450 branch locations in 48 states and is the largest U.S. brokerage firm in number of locations headquartered outside of New York.
 A.G. Edwards provides a full range of financial products and services to individual investors. The firm is a member of the New York, American and all other major securities and commodities exchanges.
 -0- 6/29/92
 NOTE TO EDITORS: Worseck is available for interviews. To arrange an interview or obtain a copy of the report, call 314-289-3380.
 /CONTACT: Greg Carr of A.G. Edwards & Sons, 314-289-3380/ CO: A.G. Edwards & Sons ST: Missouri IN: FIN SU:

BB -- DV005 -- 4816 06/29/92 15:01 EDT
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Publication:PR Newswire
Date:Jun 29, 1992

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