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POLYCONOMICS REPORT DOCUMENTS EAST ASIAN TRADE BOOM

 MORRISTOWN, N.J., Sept. 9 /PRNewswire/ -- Trade among the 10 countries of the fast-growing East Asian region will soon outpace those countries' volume of exports and imports with the rest of the world, according to a new report by Polyconomics, Inc., the economic and political consulting firm based in Morristown.
 "The East Asian Breakout," authored by Criton Zoakos, director of Polyconomics' Global 2000 emerging markets research service, documents the spectacular rise of the East Asian economies. From January 1990 through December 1992, East Asia's monthly trade with the rest of the world rose from $57.3 billion to $84.5 billion, an increase of more than 47 percent. Trade within the region, however, is growing twice as fast. During the 1990-92 period, trade among East Asian countries grew from $36.6 billion to $70.6 billion on a monthly basis, a 94.5 percent increase.
 If patterns continue at present rates, trade within East Asia will equal the region's trade with the rest of the world by the first quarter of next year. But based on analysis of trade data published by the International Monetary Fund and official agencies of the individual countries, "we believe the trend is currently accelerating, suggesting that by year-end, intra-regional trade will be more important to the economies of East Asia than those countries' trade with the outside world," the Polyconomics report states.
 The self-sustaining growth of trade within East Asia will alter economic and political relationships both inside and outside the region. As one example, according to the report, "U.S. threats of sanctions against China or trade retaliation against Japan are unlikely to pack the same force as previously because these regional economic behemoths are becoming more dependent on each other's markets than on the U.S." The economic leverage of North America and Europe over East Asian nations is weakening as the countries of the region increasingly "look to the expanding markets of their Pacific neighbors."
 China's emergence as the world's fastest growing economy has been an important catalyst for the burgeoning expansion of trade in the region, the report shows. In the 1990-92 period, China's imports from its regional partners grew from $25.5 billion to $41 billion. In fact, according to the report, China replaced Japan in December 1992 as the largest market for East Asian exports, with $6.2 billion in intra- regional imports that month, compared to Japan's $6.01 billion. Data from the first half of this year show China's regional imports continuing to expand at a 32 percent annual rate.
 The sweeping transformation of East Asia can also be seen in the pro-growth policies being adopted by governments throughout the region, as they reduce the role of the state in economic activity and increase the incentives for entrepreneurial activity and risk-taking investment. The policies that produced China's awakening are now "being rapidly replicated in the region's other political economies," the report states, including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, and "most promising," the new government of Japan. Singapore, the report notes, was well ahead of its neighbors in adopting incentive-based policies, while Hong Kong has had a long tradition of economic dynamism. The other two countries of the region, Taiwan and Thailand, "are groping toward the same direction," although they must first resolve non- economic political problems.
 For further information about "The East Asian Breakout," contact Polyconomics at 201-267-4640.
 -0- 9/9/93
 /CONTACT: David Gitlitz of Polyconomics, 201-267-4641/


CO: Polyconomics, Inc. ST: New Jersey IN: PUB SU: ECO

TS-LG -- NY065 -- 0392 09/09/93 14:29 EDT
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Date:Sep 9, 1993
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