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POLITICAL REPORT.

The Women's Issue

Female candidates, led by Democratic women, won impressive victories in November's elections. We look in this issue at the views of women and men. Women are more Democratic than men, and they are a larger share of the electorate. They have different views on the election results and on President Trump's qualities. Later in this issue, we look at opinions on some prominent women.

Q: Do you think Democrats winning control of the US House of Representatives is a good thing or bad thing? (Quinnipiac)

Q: Do you think more women in Congress will make things work better than it does now, worse than it does now, or won't it change much? (CBS News)
               Democrats winning        More women in Congress
               control of the US        will make things in Congress
               House is a good thing    work better

Responses of
Women          69%                      56%
Men            54                       40

Note: In the CBS question, 4 percent of women and 5 percent of men said
more women will make things work worse in Congress. Thirty-eight
percent of women, and 52 percent of men said things would be the same.
Quinnipiac sample is registered voters.

Source: Quinnipiac University, November 14-19, 2018; CBS News, November
15-18, 2018.

Note: Table made from bar graph.


Q: How important is it that more women be elected to public office?

Q: How serious a problem is sexual harassment in this country today?

                Very/Somewhat important   Sexual harassment is a...
                that more women be        Very serious/Serious problem
                elected to public office  in America today

Responses of
Female voters   81%                       87%
Male voters     75                        80

Source: 2018 National Exit Pool exit poll.

Note: Table made from bar graph.


Q: Would you say that Donald Trump...?
                        Cares about                 Shares
               Is       average       Is            your
               honest   Americans     intelligent   values

Responses of
Women          32%      35%           49%           29%
White women    40       45            56            37
Men            42       51            62            41

Note: Sample is registered voters.

Source: Quinnipiac University, November 2018.


Looking at Female Voters

Below we look at what the 2018 exit poll showed about the attitudes and demography of different groups of women and compare them to men. To take just one of the interesting stories here, white suburban women, a much-discussed group during the campaign, were more likely to identify as Republicans than Democrats, yet they split evenly (49 to 49 percent) in their view about how Donald Trump was handling his job as president.
                                              Voters
                             Women    White   Nonwhite   White
                                      women   women      suburban
                                                         women
Usually think of
  yourself as a
Democrat                     45%      35%     66%        32%
Republican                   30       38      13         41
Ind/Something else           25       27      21         27
On most political matters,
  consider self
Liberal                      30%      28%     34%        26%
Moderate                     38       37      41         37
Conservative                 32       35      25         37
Currently married            56%      61%     45%        64%
Attend religious services
At least monthly             47%      44%     56%        43%
Few times a year/Less        53       56      44         57
Born-again or evangelical
  Christian                  NA       37%     47%        35%
First-time voter in
midterm                      16%      13%     24%        14%
Favorable opinion of
  Democratic Party           55%      47%     74%        41%
Unfavorable                  41       49      22         55
Favorable opinion of
  Republican Party           39%      45%     25%        49%
Unfavorable                  57       52      70         47
Donald Trump handling
  his job as president
Approve                      40%      48%     21%        49%
Disapprove                   59       51      76         49

                             Men

Usually think of
  yourself as a
Democrat                     29%
Republican                   36
Ind/Something else           35
On most political matters,
  consider self
Liberal                      23%
Moderate                     36
Conservative                 41
Currently married            63%
Attend religious services
At least monthly             44%
Few times a year/Less        56
Born-again or evangelical
  Christian                  NA
First-time voter in
midterm                      15%
Favorable opinion of
  Democratic Party           40%
Unfavorable                  56
Favorable opinion of
  Republican Party           50%
Unfavorable                  46
Donald Trump handling
  his job as president
Approve                      50%
Disapprove                   49
Source: 2018 National Election Pool exit poll.


Polls on Pelosi

Gallup notes that Americans generally rate new Speakers of the House positively when they take office. The polling organization also wrote in a November 2018 release that all recent speakers--Paul Ryan, John Boehner, Nancy Pelosi, Dennis Hastert, and Newt Gingrich--were rated more negatively than positively by the end of their tenures. We focus here on the ratings of Nancy Pelosi, who became the first female Speaker of the House in 2007.

Q: Now we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person or if you have never heard of them.

(Continued from the previous page)

On Election Day, 31 percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Nancy Pelosi. They voted overwhelmingly for Democratic House candidates. Nearly a quarter of voters with an unfavorable opinion of her also voted for Democratic candidates. The polls taken since the election that ask about Nancy Pelosi as Speaker show that there is some appetite for change about Democrats.

Q: Is your opinion of Nancy Pelosi... ?
                                 How they voted
                             Democratic    Republican
                             House         House
                    Voters   candidates    candidates

Favorable opinion
of Nancy Pelosi     31%      89%           10%
Unfavorable         56       24            75

                Female voters' response   Male voters' response

Favorable       34%                       28%
Unfavorable     49                        63

Source: 2018 National Election Pool exit poll.

Note: Table made from bar graph.


Q: As you may know, the next Speaker of the US House of Representatives will be a member of the Democratic Party. Who would you prefer to be the next Speaker of the House... ?
                                        Responses of
                                Dems.   Reps.          Ind.
Prefer Nancy Pelosi to
be the next Speaker       30%   49%     12%            27%
Prefer another Democrat   57    40      76             58

Note: In a question about whether Republicans should select Mitch
McConnell to continue as Majority Leader, 14 percent nationally said
select McConnell, 33 percent someone else.

Source: CBS News, November 15-18, 2018.

Note: Table made from bar graph.


Q: Should Democrats in the House of Representatives reelect Nancy Pelosi as the next speaker of the House or is it time for a new leader?
                                      Responses of
                              Dems.   Reps.   Ind.

Reelect Nancy Pelosi    33%   48%     23%     25%
Time for a new leader   67    52      77      75

Note: Online survey. Sample is registered voters.

Source: Harvard Center for American Political Studies/Harris Poll,
November 27-28, 2018.

Note: Table made from bar graph.


Q: As you may know, Nancy Pelosi is the Minority Leader for the Democratic Party in the House of Representatives and was formerly Speaker of the House. When Democrats take control of the House of Representatives in January, do you believe Nancy Pelosi should... ?
                                               Responses of
                                       Dems.   Reps.    Ind.

Pelosi should be made Speaker   27%    48%     11%      22%
Should not be made Speaker      43     22      61       42
Don't know/No opinion           31     31      28       36

Note: Online survey. Sample is registered voters.

Source: Politico/Morning Consult, November 15-18, 2018

Note: Table made from bar graph.


Polls on Hillary

For more than a quarter century, pollsters have surveyed the public about Hillary Rodham Clinton. The first question that asked about whether she had presidential ambitions was asked in 1992, in a Yankelovich Clancy Shulman poll for Time. When the pollsters asked whether she had "what it takes to be President," 19 percent answered that she did, 40 percent that she did not, and 41 percent were unsure.

Since the 2016 election, only a few pollsters have asked people their views about Hillary Clinton. We show below Gallup's national trend from November 2016 on, and then we look at the responses of partisans about her. Her favorable rating reached its highest point, 67 percent, in 1998 when Bill Clinton was facing impeachment. In Gallup's latest survey from September 2018, it stood at 36 percent. Among Democrats, her favorable rating has dropped 10 points since early November 2016 in Gallup's trend.

Q: Next we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a...

Q: Now we will show you some names and groups. Please indicate if you have a... ?
                                        Responses of
                    Registered voters   Men     Women

Favorable opinion
Hillary Clinton     38%                 31%     45%
Donald Trump        38                  42      35

Note: Online survey. Sample is registered voters.

Source: Harvard Center for American Political Studies/Harris Poll,
October 2018.

Note: Table made from bar graph.


Polls on Michelle and Melania

In the November 2018 Quinnipiac University survey of registered voters, 4 in 10 hadn't heard enough about Melania Trump to have an opinion of her. Of the remainder, 35 percent had a favorable opinion, and 20 percent an unfavorable one. Michelle Obama is better known. Only 11 percent said they hadn't heard enough about her. Of the rest, more were favorable than unfavorable, by 63 to 24 percent. In the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll about Melania Trump from August 2018, 38 percent had positive feelings and 21 percent negative ones.

Thirty-six percent were neutral.

Q: Is your opinion of...?
                                          Responses of
                             Dem.   Rep.  Ind.   Men    Women
Favorable opinion of
  Melania Trump         35%  15%    65%   35%    36%    35%
Unfavorable             20   35      3    19     16     23
Haven't heard enough
  about her             40   44     31    40     41     39
Favorable opinion of
  Michelle Obama        63%  95%    27%   61%    56%    70%
Unfavorable             24    2     51    24     26     21
Haven't heard enough
  about her             11    4     18    12     15      8

Note: Sample is registered voters. In early January 2017, 29 percent
had a favorable view of Melanie Trump, 22 percent an unfavorable one,
and 43 percent hadn't heard enough about her.

Source: Quinnipiac University, November 2018.

Note: Table made from bar graph.


Q: Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures and groups and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don't know the name, please just say so.
                      August 2018   January 2017

Melania Trump
Positive feelings     38%           27%
Neutral               36            41
Negative feelings     21            25

Note: August survey is registered voters.

Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, latest that of August 2018.

Note: Table made from bar graph.


Women and Men on the Court

In a post-election online survey, Economist/YouGov asked people their impressions of members of the Supreme Court. With the exception of Brett Kavanaugh, all are viewed more favorably than unfavorably. The "unsure" response is high for all of these people. Roughly a quarter of men and women say they are unsure of their view of Kavanaugh. More women view him unfavorably than view him favorably; men are split. Partisan differences are larger. Seventy-eight percent of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Kavanaugh, while 77 percent of Democrats have an unfavorable opinion of him.

When asked their view of the Supreme Court's ideological leanings in a November Quinnipiac University survey, men and women did not differ significantly Four in 10 said the Court is "about right."

Q: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following people?
              Ruth Bader   Elena   Sonia       John      Clarence
              Ginsburg     Kagan   Sotomayer   Roberts   Thomas

Favorable     39%          30%     40%         36%       37%
Unfavorable   32           23      25          24        31
Not sure      29           47      35          40        32

              Stephen   Samuel   Neil
              Breyer    Alito    Gorsuch

Favorable     28%       32%      35%
Unfavorable   19        21       24
Not sure      53        47       40

                                Responses of  Responses of
              National adults'  Women  Men    Reps.  Dems.  Inds.
              responses

Favorable     34%               30%    39%    78%     6%    27%
Unfavorable   41                44     38     11     77     35
Not sure      24                25     23     11     17     38

Note: Online survey. "Very" and "Somewhat" favorable/unfavorable
responses combined.

Source: Economist/YouGov, November 2018.

Note: Table made from bar graph.


Q: Do you think... ?
                                      Responses of  Responses of
                       National (RV)  Women   Men   Reps.  Dems.  Inds.
                       responses

The Supreme Court is
Too liberal            14%            13%     15%   27%    5%     12%
Too conservative       36             37      35     5     65     33
About right            41             40      43    63     21     47

Note: Sample is registered voters.

Source: Quinnipiac University, November 2018.

Note: Table made from bar graph.
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Publication:AEI Paper & Studies
Article Type:Survey
Geographic Code:1USA
Date:Dec 1, 2018
Words:1970
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