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PAGASA: Five to eight tropical cyclones seen in next three months.

At least five to eight more tropical cyclones are expected to affect the country in the next three months, before the El NiAaAaAeA~o phenomen reaches its peak by the last quarter of 2015, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said.

PAGASA climatologist Annaliza Solis said that "weak" El NiAaAaAeA~o reach the "moderate" strength during the last week of May.

"The sea surface temperature was warmer by more than 1 degree Celsius since the last week of May," Solis said.

However, she noted that most parts of the country will have enough rainfall due to the prevailing southwest monsoon or habagat until September.

PAGASA Acting Administrator Dr. Vicente Malano said the period is the peak of southwest monsoon or habagat and tropical cyclone activity is likewise at its maximum.

Rain-inducing weather systems, such as thunderstorms, intertropical convergence zone, low pressure areas, tropical cyclones and enhanced southwest monsoon will dominate the season bringing widespread and heavy rainfall in many areas of the country.

The gradual recession of rains, associated with the southwest monsoon, is expected during the latter part of September up to early October.

Two tropical cyclones, namely "Egay" (international name "Linfa") and "Falcon" (international name "Chan-hom), have so far entered or developed inside the Philippine area of responsibility this month. Five to eight more tropical cyclones are still expected to affect the country until September.

Rainfall condition is predicted to be near normal to above normal in most parts of Luzon, Western Visayas, Samar, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Northern Mindanao, Compostela Valley, Davao City, Davao Oriental and Lanao del Sur.

The rest of the country will likely receive below normal rainfall conditions.

"By October to December, we can expect drier than normal rainfall condition because the peak of El NiAaAaAeA~o is expected during this period," Sol said. PAGASA said the "moderate" El NiAaAaAeA~o is seen to strengthen to "stron El NiAaAaAeA~o by the last quarte

The intensity of the last El NiAaAaAeA~o event that occurred in 2009-20 was moderate, while the last "strong" El NiAaAaAeA~o event happened in 1997-199

Malano said moderate El NiAaAaAeA~o will continue and likely to intensi in the next coming months and may last until April 2016.

From October to December, will be the first half of the northeast monsoon or amihan season. Weather systems likely to influence the country are the tail end of the cold front, intertropical convergence zone, easterly wave, ridge of high pressure area, the easterlies and three to five tropical cyclone occurrences.

Tropical cyclones originating from northwestern Pacific Ocean tend to move in a westerly direction during the season and their most likely tracks are expected between Visayas and Central Luzon with secondary tracks, which is less expected, over Northern Mindanao, Malano said.

"There will still be rains during this period but it will be lower than the normal amount of rainfall during a non-El NiAaAaAeA~o episode," Sol said.

From October to December, generally below normal to way below normal rainfall conditions are likely over the entire Philippines except for some patches of near normal rainfall condition over Batanes and Agusan del Norte.

Several areas are expected to experience dry spell and drought conditions during the last quarter of 2015.

These are clear signs and manifestation of impacts due to El NiAaAaAeA~ Malano said.

Dry spell is described as three consecutive months of below normal (21 to 60 percent reduction from average) rainfall conditions or two consecutive months of way below normal (more than 60 percent reduction from average) rainfall conditions.

Meanwhile, drought is defined as three consecutive months of way below normal (>60 percent reduction from average) or five consecutive months of below normal (21 to 60 percent reduction from average) rainfall condition.


Commuters stranded under the Pureza Bridge in Sta. Mesa Manila are experiencing difficulty in waiting for their Jeepneys and UV Express on to their workplace and schools due to typoon Egay's heavy rainfalls. (Camille
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Title Annotation:Breaking News
Publication:Manila Bulletin
Geographic Code:9PHIL
Date:Jul 15, 2015
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