Orient set to top the corners tally.
The Soccer Boffin with his best bet of the weekend BACK Leyton Orient to take the most corners in their Sky Bet League One game at home to Cheltenham.
With bet365 you can get decimal odds of 1.9 - equivalent to fractional odds of 9-10 - about Orient -0.5 Asian handicap corners, a bet that will payout if Orient flight more flag-kicks than Cheltenham.
The prospect of a payout might just be better than the odds imply.
At Brisbane Road home supporters will reflect on what should have been. Justin Edinburgh, the manager who guided Orient to the National League title last season, died in June. He was a tragically young 49.
Orient's results in the National League suggests they are likely to finish around mid-table in League Two, based on the records of other promoted teams in the National League then League Two. And that is what ante-post markets envisage.
This in turn suggests Orient should be slightly better than Cheltenham, who in the three seasons since they returned from the National League have finished 21st, 17th and 16th. And Orient are playing on their own ground.
The general win-draw-loss markets seem spot-on in implying something like a 47 per cent chance of an Orient win, a 27 per cent chance of a draw and a 26 per cent chance of a Cheltenham win.
Over the last two decades in EFL games with similar goalrelated expectations the chance of the home team taking most corners was typically 56 per cent.
Decimal odds of 1.9 indicate less than a 53 per cent chance of the bet being successful.
Orient's corner counts for and against in the National League were broadly consistent with the number of goals they scored and conceded. Usually those stats move in tandem. Both are connected to how much attacking and defending a team do.
Although there will inevitably be more uncertainty than normal in any evaluation of a team who have changed division, there seem to be reasonable grounds for thinking that the prospect of Orient taking more corners than Cheltenham may be better than bet365's odds acknowledge.
Recommendation Leyton Orient-0.5 Asian handicap corners 1pt 1.9 bet365