Numerically Predicting Thunderstorms: The Concept Emerges.
D. Lilly, director of the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS), discussed the prospects for short-range numerical prediction of intense small-scale weather systems, development of which is the goal of CAPS. The CAPS numerical prediction model, called the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS), is being developed for application on a regional basis, and is expected to make heavy use of data from the WSR-88D (NEXRAD) radars. Model structure emphasizes modularity, ease of learning and modification, and a high degree of portability between computing architectures, including massively parallel systems. Horizontal grid spacing is expected to be <1 km in active weather regions over a prediction area of order 1000 km square. The most severe scientific problems lie in the assimilation of inhomogeneous asynchronous data over this wide range of scales, from the regional-scale first guess from an operational model to grid-scale Doppler radar data in precipitation areas and the boundary layer. Examination of the proposed WSR-88D shows that about half of the central U.S. plains are covered by two or more radars at distances of less than 180 km and suitable viewing angles, allowing coarse-resolution dual-Doppler estimates of three-dimensional winds. Elsewhere, including most urban areas, only single-Doppler data are available. Observation-system simulation experiments indicate a fair-to-good probability of useful retrieval of three-dimensional winds, temperature, and pressure from single Doppler, using control theory (adjoint equation) techniques. Simpler and more computer-efficient methods are also sought. A proof of concept experiment is planned for about 1996.
--"The Ninth AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction 14-18 October 1991, Denver, Colorado," by Ying-Hwa Kuo, in BAMS, in July 1992.
To read this article in the BAMS archives, see https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/IO.! 175/1520-0477-73.7.1009
Caption: Figure from "Numerical prediction of the 8 May 2003 Oklahoma City tornadic supercell and embedded tornado using ARPS with the assimilation of WSR-88D data" by M. Xue et al., in Weather and Forecasting (https://doi.org/10.M75/WAF-D-13-00029.1). This imagery has been created using the Advanced Regional Prediction System, where the right panels are from CNTLI km, the control experiment.
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|Publication:||Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society|
|Date:||Jul 1, 2019|
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