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Normal to above-normal rainfall expected from February to April.

ISLAMABAD -- Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected in most parts of the country from February to April.

An official of Met Office on Sunday informed that a western disturbance during late winter may enhance precipitation intensity in northern half of the country.

While normal rainfall is expected in southern half of the country during the season Feb-April, he told reporter.

Experimental seasonal forecast is issued on monthly and seasonal time scales by applying the statistical downscaling techniques.

Output of the Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) is used to obtain the predicted rainfall over the selected stations of Pakistan, he said.

The outlook for the month of February shows that normal to below normal precipitation is expected in most parts of the country except a few places in Azad Jammu and Kashmir and the adjoining areas of Khyber Pakhtoonkhawa and Punjab where slightly above normal precipitation is likely to occur.

South-Western Baluchistan is also expected to get slightly above-normal precipitation whereas Gilgit-Baltistan and northern parts of Khyber Pakhtoonkhawa may get below normal precipitation during the month of February.

The outlook for the month of March shows that above normal precipitation is most likely to occur in most parts of the country.

This indicates strong influence of western disturbance in late winter season causing heavy rains in the month of March.

Gilgit-Baltistan, Khyber Pakhtoonkhawa, Punjab and North-Eastern Baluchistan are expected to get above normal precipitation.

Coastal areas of Sindh and Baluchistan may get normal to slightly below normal rainfall during the month of March.

Seasonal prediction provides information that how the weather conditions are expected as compared to the normal atmospheric conditions.

Output of the Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) is downscaled at regional level to obtain the seasonal forecast.

Normal to above normal rainfall is expected in most parts of the country with a maximum departure in northern Punjab, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtoonkhawa.

Normal to slightly below normal rainfall is expected in Sindh province during the month of April.

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Publication:Balochistan Times (Baluchistan Province, Pakistan)
Geographic Code:9PAKI
Date:Feb 15, 2016
Words:332
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