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NIGERIA - Nigeria To Supply Over 60M T/Y Of LNG By 2010; May Overtake Qatar In 2012/13.

Three ventures in Nigeria will raise LNG exports from 10 million tons/year in 2005 to more than 65m t/y by 2010. Shell, world leader in LNG business, would raise the capacity of Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas Ltd (NLNG) to 40m t/y if demand remains strong. A fourth venture under study could raise LNG export capacities to 70-75m t/y by 2012/13 and thus Nigeria might overtake Qatar as the world's biggest source of liquefied natural gas (refrigerated methane).

These, along with other LNG export projects across the globe, come against an easing of take-or-pay (ToP) and other rigid supply rules around the world. The European Union has moved against the ToP and destination clauses in gas supply contracts affecting the EU market. With the US and other gas markets deregulated and the assets of integrated supply majors unbundled, shorter term than 20/25-year contracts now are acceptable to LNG exporting ventures.

By late 2002 the EU had reached agreement with NLNG on ending restrictive clauses in contracts on the resale of gas. The European Commission had been trying to end such restrictions with various suppliers including Nigeria, Algeria and Russia. Its statement then said: "The Commission has reached a landmark agreement with NLNG Ltd, which agreed to delete a clause preventing one of its European customers to resell the gas outside its national borders" (see background in Vol. 61, Gas Market Trends No. 7).

Two pipelines will supply neighbouring African countries, with one to run to Europe through Algeria (see following pages).

Nigeria's recoverable reserves of natural gas, still mostly associated with oil discoveries, exceed the 187 TCF estimate made in August 2004 by the state-owned Nigeria National Petroleum Corp (NNPC), whose previous figure was 160 TCF. Nigeria has not been explored properly for non-associated gas as yet. Deep-water prospects in the Gulf of Guinea are likely to make Nigeria one of the world's richest gas countries.
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Publication:APS Review Gas Market Trends
Date:Aug 15, 2005
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