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NEURAL NETWORKS, FUZZY LOGIC EXPLODING, TO NEAR $10 BILLION BY 1998

NEURAL NETWORKS, FUZZY LOGIC EXPLODING, TO NEAR $10 BILLION BY 1998
 MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif., May 12 /PRNewswire/ -- Neural network and fuzzy logic markets are emerging from infancy, and these new technologies that seek to simulate human reasoning will grow worldwide by more than 30 times over the next seven years, projected a new study just released by Market Intelligence.
 Total revenues for neural networks and fuzzy logic combined will balloon from just over $300 million in 1991 to nearly $10 billion by 1998, expanding at a compound annual revenue growth rate of nearly 65 percent, according to the report, Imitating Human Reasoning: The Viability and Commercialization of Neural Networks and Fuzzy Logic.
 Recent growth rates of over 50 percent will accelerate into the three-digit range in the coming years, with the market nearly doubling every year through 1995.
 The two markets are now of roughly equal size, but fuzzy logic will grow more rapidly until mid-decade, when neural networks will recapture first place. Neural networks have a projected CAGR of 46 percent through 1998, while fuzzy logic's projected worldwide CAGR is an even higher 76 percent.
 Neural networks focus on simulating the high connectivity between huge numbers of cells that characterize the human brain, while fuzzy logic aims at developing multivalued rather than binary logic that can simulate human response to continuous rather than discrete choices.
 The two technologies are expected to be primarily synergistic rather than competitive, and to coexist on a common integrated platform in the future, along with related technologies like expert systems.
 The United States and Japan are playing complementary roles in the two technologies. The United States has led in neural network development, but new interest by Japanese companies should promote competition. Japan, on the other hand, has led in fuzzy logic, implementing the technology in over 100 applications -- predominantly consumer electronics, such as air conditioners, cameras and washing machines. U.S. competitors, however, aware of the successful commercialization of these products in Japan, are expected to
challenge that country's position. While Europe has lagged in both arenas, major European competitors like Philips, Siemens and Thomson have started to move into both.
 Standard software and microchips will displace engineering development tools and custom applications as the dominant product segments, although the latter currently make up fully 90 percent of the combined markets.
 Financial and industrial applications for neural networks will expand their share worldwide at the expense of the defense segment, while medical applications also expand substantially. In the United States however, military funding will remain dominant for some time.
 In the fuzzy logic marketplace, automotive and industrial applications will overtake consumer electronics, currently the largest segment.
 Price in relation to functionality will decline steadily in these technologies, even while prices per device may increase as a reflection of increased technological sophistication.
 In general, entry barriers are not high in these emerging markets and competition is not extreme. The central obstacle is the availability of highly qualified personnel. Although newcomers will have to play catch-up with existing players, there is tremendous growth potential available in these industries.
 Despite rapid advances, neural/fuzzy technology will not challenge RISC (reduced instruction-set computing) or parallel processing for dominance as a microprocessor architecture before the turn of the century.
 Market Intelligence is an international high-technology research firm specializing in computing and information technologies. All Market Intelligence reports are based on extensive interviews with marketing and technical experts from selected companies in each market segment. Primary research is validated by thorough analysis of available secondary research. Since 1982, Market Intelligence has emerged as one of the leading publishers of high-technology market research reports.
 Code: 305-70 Price: $1,895
 Total Neural Networks and Fuzzy Logic Market:
 Revenue Forecasts (World),
 1988 - 1998
 (In millions of dollars)
 Year Revenues Revenue
 ($ Million) Growth Rate
 (percent)
 1988 $95.4 --
 1989 125.2 31.3
 1990 177.7 41.9
 1991 301.3 69.6
 1992 580.4 92.6
 1993 1,208.7 108.2
 1994 2,539.5 110.1
 1995 4,643.2 82.8
 1996 6,461.6 39.2
 1997 7,996.0 23.7
 1998 9,915.0 24.0
 Compound Annual Growth Rate (1991 - 1998): 64.7 percent
 Note: All figures are rounded.
 Source: Market Intelligence Research Corp.
 -0- 5/12/92
 /CONTACT: Amy Emerson Arnell of Market Intelligence, 415-961-9000, or 415-961-5042 (fax)/ CO: Market Intelligence Research Corporation ST: California IN: CPR SU:


MC-RM -- SJ004 -- 9201 05/12/92 14:10 EDT
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Date:May 12, 1992
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