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Montana avoided U.S. economic travails of 2001-2003: the Montana outlook.

Montana's overall economic performance from 2001 to 2003 was well above the national average. The impacts of the 2001 recession and the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks were simply less severe here than in the nation overall. There was some overall slowing in the Montana economy during 2002 and 2003, but nowhere near that of the U.S. economy.

Several measures support the mild impact on Montana. Monthly employment growth held between 1 percent and 2 percent in Montana, while there was negative job growth nationwide following Sept. 11, 2001. The terrorist attacks turned a short, mild recession into a longer, deeper decline (Figure 1).

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

The same patterns are also present in the Consumer Index Sentiment data, which are independent of the labor market. Montana and U.S. indexes were about equal in 2000. But the Montana index displayed few of the trends of the national index over the following three years. U.S. consumer sentiment declined in April 2001, during the corporate scandals of 2002, and because of pre-Iraq-war jitters in early 2003. The Montana Index did not follow these trends (Figure 2).

[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]

Montana's nonfarm labor income also posted only slight slowdowns in 2001 and 2003. Nonfarm labor income is the short-term proxy for Gross State Product.

Finally, house prices in Montana increased faster than the U.S. average in recent years--usually the indication of a more robust economy. The index of single-family homes increased 8.2 percent per year in Montana between 2001 and 2003. The nationwide figure was 6.5 percent (Table 2).

Montana's housing price bubble could pop, but the chance is lower here than in red-hot Fresno, Calif., where home prices grew by 16 percent; Providence, R.I., with 12 percent increases; or in Miami, Fla., where prices grew by 11.1 percent.

The data pretty conclusively show that Montana avoided the 2001 recession and the aftermath of Sept. 11. We also avoided the 1991 recession. Does that mean Montana is recession-proof? The short answer is no.

Montana was lucky in 1991 and 2001. The U.S. industries most affected by these recessions were relatively unimportant in the Treasure State. Future recessions may hit hard, but only if they are concentrated in industries important to Montana.

Montana avoided the nation's overall economic woes because its economic base is concentrated in agriculture, mining, wood products, and other manufacturing, transportation, nonresident travel, and the federal government. The industries hit hardest by the national recession included dot-coms, high-tech manufacturing, communications, and financial services. Of course, Montana's basic industries don't explain everything. Factors such as increased education, increased capital--including computers, and infrastructure also cause economic growth. Still, the basic industries explain most of the big trends in Montana's economy during the last 30 years. It is important to remember that there are not just two or three basic industries. We have listed seven different categories of basic industries, and there are actually more than that (Figure 4, page 8). Categories such as manufacturing include a variety of activities. So it is a simplification to say Montana depends on only one or two basic industries.

[FIGURE 4 OMITTED]

Economic trends in Montana are usually the result of a variety of factors, not just one. For example, between 1995 and 2000, basic labor income increased by $149 million (Table 1). This increase was the net effect of growth in four industries, declines in two industries, and stability in yet another. Looking closer, we can see that increases in three of the industries were about equal: nonresident travel, $69 million; manufacturing, $78 million; and the federal government, $86 million.

We know that the 1995 to 2000 data are certainly out of date. But the federal government has made major changes in the statistical reporting system, and more current comparisons risk problems associated with comparing apples to oranges.

So, what is the forecast for Montana's economy?

Montana's economic growth is expected to accelerate slightly in 2004 because of:

* continued recovery in the U.S. and world economies,

* reopening of the mine in Butte, and

* continued labor productivity growth.

With strong prices in many of the commodity markets, we don't expect a significant crisis among our natural resource industries. We have revised upward the overall forecasts from last year by about half a percent, and believe that some of the productivity increases experienced in the late 1990s now appear to be permanent.

There is, however, likely to be some bad economic news in the press. During the past few years, Montana has fared well in comparisons of state economic performance. That wasn't because our economy improved, though, but because the rest of the country was suffering so mightily. Now the rest of the states are beginning to recover and Montana's ranking is likely to drift downward. Once again, it is not because of anything happening here, but because of events elsewhere.

The major risks to Montana's outlook are any faltering in the U.S. and world economies, the full (and still unknown) impacts of Mad Cow Disease, and a sharp rise in interest rates (affecting the construction and wood products industries).

Missoula County

Missoula barely felt the 2001 recession or the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks. Employment growth consistently exceeded the statewide average, and is probably one of the reasons why house prices increased so significantly. The index for single-family home prices in Missoula County grew by 7.5 percent in 2003, well above the statewide and national averages. In 2003, Missoula County was 57th out of 221 ranked metropolitan areas in the United States with respect to house price increases.

Missoula continues as the major trade and service center in western Montana and the second-largest trade center in the state (after Billings). Between 1995 and 2000 (the latest economic data available), the largest contributor to growth in the local economy was trade center activities. Significant growth occurred in health care and in business and professional services, such as advertising and engineering. In addition, old standbys such as state government (including The University of Montana) and the federal government (including the U.S. Forest Service) were also significant contributors.

[FIGURE 2-3 OMITTED]
Table 1

Change in Basic Industry Labor Income,
1995-2000, Missoula County

 Millions of 2001 Dollars

 Change
 1995 2000 1995-2000

Nonresident Travel $24 $23 $-1
Other Industries 39 43 4
State Government 105 120 15
Federal Government 86 101 15
Wood and Paper Products 98 100 2
Transportation 103 104 1
Trade Center 140 217 77
TOTAL $595 $708 $113

Sources: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of
Montana-Missoula. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of
Commerce.

Figure 1

Actual and Projected Percent
Change in Nonfarm Labor Income,
Missoula County, 1998-2007

 Actual Projected

'98 5.7
'99 5.4
'00 4.9
'01 3.0
'02 6.3
'03 2.9
'04 4.4
'05 4.0
'06 3.2
'07 3.1

Note : Table made from bar graph.

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce;
Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University
of Montana-Missoula

Figure 4

Labor Income in Basic Industries,
Missoula County, 2002
[percent of total]

Nonresident Travel 4%
Other Basic 7%
The University of Montana 10%
Federal Government 14%
Wood and Paper Products 16%
Transportation 16%
Trade Center/Retail, Wholesale 8%
Trade Center/Services 25%

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce;
Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of
Montana-Missoula


Flathead County

Flathead County was one of Montana's fastest-growing counties during the past three decades. But it was also one of the most volatile, as the growth rate fluctuated significantly from year to year. The basic industries provide the explanation. Manufacturing (including wood products, primary metals, and other manufacturing) accounts for about 45 percent of the economic base in Flathead County.

There's more than one thing going on, though. Between 1995 and 2000, basic labor income increased by $60 million. Two sectors accounted for much of the increase: nonresident travel jumped by $21 million and manufacturing increased by $19 million. Two other industries also showed sizable increases: the federal government increased $9 million, primarily reflecting increases in salaries; and trade center industries increased $9 million. Kalispell continues to grow as a regional trade and service center.

[FIGURE 2-3 OMITTED]
Table 1

Change in Basic Industry Labor Income,
1995-2000, Flathead County

 Millions of 2001 Dollars

 Change
 1995 2000 1995-2000

Agriculture and Related $17 $20 $3
Nonresident Travel 38 59 21
transportation 48 51 3
Selected Manufacturing 68 87 19
Trade Center 42 51 9
Federal Government 49 58 9
Wood Products 88 84 -4
TOTAL $350 $410 $60

Sources: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, the University of
Montana-Missoula. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of
Commerce.

Figure 1

Actual and Projected Percent
Change in Nonfarm Labor Income,
Flathead County, 1998-2007

 Actual Projected

'98 12.3
'99 -2.0
'00 6.0
'01 3.7
'02 3.8
'03 4.5
'04 4.5
'05 4.0
'06 3.5
'07 3.4

Note : Table made from bar graph.

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce;
Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of
Montana-Missoula.

Figure 4

Labor Income in Basic Industries,
Flathead County, 2002
[percent of total]

Agriculture and Other 5%
Nonresident Travel 9%
Primary Metals 10%
Transportation 13%
Other Manufacturing 13%
Trade Center/Retail, Wholesale 6%
Trade Center/Services 7%
Federal Government 15%
Wood Products 22%

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Sources: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The
University of Montana-Missoula. Bureau of Economic
Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce.


Silver Bow County

The addition of about 300 well-paying jobs associated with the reopening of the Montana Resources Inc. mine was welcome news for Butte's economy. Unfortunately, the upturn was balanced by job losses associated with the closure of Touch America. Consequently, the projected growth for 2004 is relatively modest in Silver Bow County--at 2.9 percent. And the forecast shows continued modest growth through 2007.

Long-term and short-term trends in the Butte economy are mostly explained by trends in the basic industries. Mining declined by $33 million, but trade center activities actually increased. Even without mining, Butte functions as a trade center for southwestern Montana.

[FIGURE 2-3 OMITTED]
Table 1

Change in Basic Industry Labor Income,
1995-2000, Silver Bow County

 Millions of 2001 Dollars

 Change
 1995 2000 1995-2000

Selected Manufacturing $19 $23 $4
State Government 26 29 3
Mining 52 19 -33
Federal Government 23 25 2
Trade Center & Nonres. Travel 45 69 24
Utilities 48 48 0
TOTAL $213 $213 $0

Sources: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of
Montana-Missoula. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of
Commerce.

Figure 1

Actual and Projected Percent
Change in Nonfarm Labor Income,
Silver Bow County, 1998-2007

 Actual Projected

'98 2.2
'99 -1.6
'00 -1.9
'01 1.3
'02 4.2
'03 -3.1
'04 2.9
'05 0.3
'06 -0.7
'07 0.7

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce;
Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of
Montana-Missoula.

Figure 4

Labor Income in Basic Industries,
Silver Bow County, 2002
[percent of total]

Selected Manufacturing 10%
Montana Tech 11%
Oil, Gas, and Mining 12%
Federal Government 13%
Trade Center and Nonresident Travel 20%
Utility and Related 34%

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Sources: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University
of Montana-Missoula. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S.
Department of Commerce.


Cascade County

Malmstrom Air Force Base and regional trade center activities account for more than half of the economic base in Great Falls. They are also the biggest source of economic change.

Since the mid-1980s, there has been slow growth in the overall economy in Cascade County. The cause: basic industries. Between 1995 and 2000, there were significant declines in trade center activities (mostly in retail trade rather than services) and in the federal government (mostly reflecting changes at Malmstrom AFB). Financial services were one of the fastest-growing components of trade center activities. The index of single-family home prices increased 4 percent in Cascade County during 2003, slightly less than the statewide and national averages.

[FIGURE 2-3 OMITTED]
Table 1

Change in Basic Industry Labor Income,
1995-2000, Cascade County

 Millions of 2001 Dollars

 Change
 1995 2000 1995-2000

Agriculture and Related $23 $11 $-12
Selected Manufacturing 26 29 3
Other Industries 23 25 2
Transportation 35 40 5
State Government 23 24 1
Trade Center 103 72 -31
Federal Gov't (incl. Military) 274 234 -40
TOTAL $507 $435 $-72

Sources: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of
Montana-Missoula. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of
Commerce.

Figure 1

Actual and Projected Percent
Change in Nonfarm Labor Income,
Cascade County, 1998-2007

 Actual Projected

'98 3.8
'99 1.9
'00 1.2
'01 0.2
'02 2.9
'03 1.5
'04 1.9
'05 1.4
'06 1.1
'07 1.0

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce;
Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of
Montana-Missoula.

Figure 4

Labor Income in Basic Industries,
Cascade County, 2002
[percent of total]

Agriculture and Related 4%
Selected Manufacturing 6%
Education and Other 8%
Transportation 8%
Federal Civilian 13%
Trade Center/Retail, Wholesale 2%
Trade Center/Services 14%
Malmstrom AFB 45%

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Sources: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University
of Montana-Missoula. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S.
Department of Commerce.


Lewis and Clark County

No doubt about it, Helena is a government town. Together, federal and state government represent more than 60 percent of the economic base. And that provides a bit more stability for the economy of Lewis and Clark County. State and federal governments also supplied the largest increases in basic labor income between 1995 and 2000.

Nevertheless, there are distinct long-term trends in the Helena area economy, with rapid growth in the 1970s, little overall growth in the 1980s, and moderate growth in the 1990s. Helena's basic industries easily explain these long-term trends, as well as year-to-year short-term peaks and valleys in the local economy. The forecasts for 2004 and beyond include the wage freeze for state government workers instituted by the 2003 Legislature.

[FIGURE 2-3 OMITTED]
Table 1

Change in Basic Industry Labor Income,
1995-2000, Lewis and Clark County

 Millions of 2001 Dollars

 Change
 1995 2000 1995-2000

Agriculture and Other $27 $24 $-3
Selected Manufacturing 28 29 1
Communication & Transportation 30 38 8
Trade Center 81 88 7
Federal Government 92 104 12
State Government 166 204 38
TOTAL $424 $487 $63

Sources: Bureau of Business and Fcnnomic Research, The University of
Montana-Missoula. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of
Commerce.

Figure 1

Actual and Projected Percent Change
in Nonfarm Labor Income, Lewis and
Clark County, 1998-2007

 Actual Projected

'98 5.9
'99 5.0
'00 4.3
'01 0.9
'02 5.0
'03 1.9
'04 2.4
'05 2.0
'06 1.6
'07 1.6

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce;
Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of
Montana-Missoula.

Figure 4

Labor Income in Basic Industries,
Lewis and Clark County, 2002

[percent of total]

Education and Other 2%
Agriculture and Other 5%
Selected Manufacturing 6%
Transportation and Communication 7%
Trade Center--Services 18%
Federal Government 21%
State Government 41%

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Sources: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University
of Montana-Missoula Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S.
Department of Commerce.


Yellowstone County

Billings remains the state of Montana's largest trade and service center, and employment growth in Yellowstone County has generally exceeded the statewide average since 2000. That growth decelerated dramatically in 2003, with preliminary data showing slowdowns in construction, wholesale trade, and hotels/motels.

Between 1995 and 2000, the growth in basic industries was concentrated in manufacturing and trade center activities. Manufacturing increases included upgrades at Yellowstone County's oil refineries. The overall growth in trade center activities was the net result of small declines in retail trade, stability in wholesale trade, and sizable increases in services. Health care and business services (advertising, accounting, etc.) were the fastest-growing activities.

The reported increase in single-family home prices in Yellowstone County was 7.0 percent in 2003, well above the national and statewide average. Yellowstone County would have been in the top 100 (of about 400) metropolitan areas nationwide, had it met U.S. government statistical criteria.

[FIGURE 2-3 OMITTED]
Table 1

Change in Basic Industry Labor Income,
1995-2000, Yellowstone County

 Millions of 2001 Dollars

 Change
 1995 2000 1995-2000

State Government $42 $50 $8
Agriculture and Related 65 64 -1
Nonresident Travel 41 42 1
Transportation 111 120 9
Selected Manufacturing 118 133 15
Federal Government 125 115 -10
Trade Center 354 419 65
TOTAL $856 $943 $87

Sources: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of
Montana-Missoula. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of
Commerce.

Figure 1

Actual and Projected Percent
Change in Nonfarm Labor Income,
Yellowstone County, 1998-2007

 Actual Projected

'98 4.4
'99 4.7
'00 4.2
'01 3.9
'02 5.9
'03 2.7
'04 3.1
'05 2.7
'06 2.2
'07 2.2

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce;
Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of
Montana-Missoula.

Figure 4

Labor Income in Basic Industries,
Yellowstone County, 2002
[percent of total]

Higher Education 2%
Agriculture Related 4%
Nonresident Travel 4%
Selected Manufacturing 18%
Federal Government 14%
Transportation 13%
Trade Center/Retail, Wholesale 20%
Trade Center/Services 25%

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Sources: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of
Montana-Missoula. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of
Commerce.


Gallatin County

Over the past 30 years, Gallatin County was one of Montana's fastest-growing counties. Its economy was not typical of others in the state, though, because it did not experience declines during the 1980s and was even able to post sizable gains at mid-decade and grew rapidly throughout the 1990s.

Between 1995 and 2000, four sectors accounted for most of the basic industry growth in Gallatin County: trade center activities (including health care), nonresident travel, state government (Montana State University), and manufacturing (including high-tech).

The freeze in state government wages contributes to the slightly slower growth forecast for 2004-2006. The real uncertainty lies in the future of high-tech manufacturing. Gallatin County is one of the few areas in Montana where high-tech manufacturing is important. The forecasts do incorporate a recovery in high-tech. The forecasted growth figures for Gallatin County (and Flathead County) are the highest among Montana cities.

[FIGURE 2-3 OMITTED]
Table 1

Change in Basic Industry Labor Income,
1995-2000, Gallatin County

 Millions of 2001 Dollars

 Change
 1995 2000 1995-2000

Agriculture and Related $23 $23 $0
Mining and Transportation 29 29 0
Federal Government 36 42 6
Trade Center 78 99 21
Nonresident Travel 74 108 34
State Government 114 147 33
Selected Manufacturing 68 99 31
TOTAL $422 $547 $125

Sources: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of
Montana-Missoula, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of
Commerce.

Figure 1

Actual and Projected Percent
Change in Nonfarm Labor Income,
Gallatin County, 1998-2007

 Actual Projected

'98 8.1
'99 6.6
'00 7.6
'01 6.0
'02 3.7
'03 4.3
'04 4.4
'05 4.0
'06 3.5
'07 3.4

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce;
Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of
Montana-Missoula.

Figure 4

Labor Income in Basic Industries,
Gallatin County, 2002
[percent of total]

Agricultural & Related 6%
Mining, Rail, Other 7%
Federal Government 9%
Trade Center-Retail, Wholesale 10%
Trade Center Services 12%
Nonresident/Travel 13%
Montana State University 20%
Selected Manufacturing 23%

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Sources: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University
of Montana-Missoula. Bureau of Economic Analysts, U.S. Department
of Commerce.


Ravalli County

Northern Ravalli County is part of the Missoula area economy, and commuters (who live in Ravalli County, but work in Missoula) are the largest component of the economic base. The 1995-2000 change in basic industry labor income shows no single cause of growth. Three sectors contributed to the increase in basic labor income: commuters, wood products (reflecting growth in the log home industry), and the federal government (including the Bitterroot National Forest and Rocky Mountain Laboratories). The revised data continue to show no measurable effects of the 2000 wildfire season on the overall economy.

[FIGURE 2-3 OMITTED]
Table 1

Change in Basic Industry Labor Income,
1995-2000, Ravalli County

 Millions of 2001 Dollars

 Change
 1995 2000 1995-2000

Ag., Mining, Nonres. Travel $9 $13 $4
Transportation 9 13 4
Medical Research 8 11 3
Federal Government 25 34 9
Wood products 24 34 10
Commuters 49 59 10
TOTAL $124 $164 $40

Sources: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of
Montana-Missoula. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of
Commerce.

Figure 1

Actual and Projected Percent
Change in Nonfarm Labor Income,
Ravalli County, 1998-2007

 Actual Projected

'98 6.4
'99 5.7
'00 6.8
'01 6.5
'02 6.1
'03 3.8
'04 4.0
'05 3.6
'06 3.1
'07 3.0

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce;
Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of
Montana-Missoula.

Figure 4

Labor Income in Basic Industries,
Ravalli County, 2002

[percent of total]

Agriculture, Mining and Nonresident Travel 7%
Trucking 7%
Medical Research 10%
Federal Government 18%
Wood Products 21%
Commuters 37%

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Sources: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University
of Montana-Missoula. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department
of Commerce.


Fergus County

Agriculture and related activities are the largest component of the economic base in Fergus County. We have also included farm implement dealers in this category. Manufacturing is an important sector in the local economic base because of the success of a local firm. Between 1995 and 1999, growth in manufacturing (again the local firm) and agriculturally-related business were the primary cause of the growth in basic labor income. The volatility of agriculture was mostly responsible for the significant ups and downs in the Fergus County economy during the last 30 years.

[FIGURE 2-3 OMITTED]
Table 1

Change in Basic Industry Labor Income,
1995-1999, Fergus County

 Millions of 2001 Dollars

 Change
 1995 1999 1995-1999

Mining, Nonresident Travel & Other $4 $4 $0
Selected Manufacturing 4 7 3
Federal Government 9 9 0
Agriculture and Related 13 15 2
TOTAL $30 $35 $5

Sources: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of
Montana-Missoula. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of
Commerce.

Figure 1

Actual and Projected Percent Change in
Nonfarm Labor Income, Fergus County
1997-2007

 Actual Projected

'97 -1.7
'98 5.1
'99 4.5
'00 0.7
'01 1.0
'02 1.5
'03 1.8
'04 2.9
'05 2.4
'06 2.0
'07 1.9

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce;
BBER, The University of Montana-Missoula; and Research and Analysis
Bureau, Montana Department of Labor and Industry.

Figure 4

Labor Income in Basic Industries,
Fergus County, 1999 [percent of total]

Mining, Nonresident Travel and Other 14%
Selected Manufacturing 20%
Federal Government 23%
Agriculture and Related 43%

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce.


Hill County

Agriculture and railroads dominate the economic base in Hill County. Trade center activities account for about 4 percent of the economic base; most are associated with health care and reflect Havre's role as an emerging regional medical center. The $17.3 million decline in basic labor income between 1995 and 1999 mostly reflects volatility in agriculture. In the nonagricultural sectors, the growth in trade center (health) and mining (mostly oil and gas exploration) just about counterbalanced the declines in federal government, state government, and railroads.

[FIGURE 2-3 OMITTED]
Table 1

Change in Basic Industry Labor Income,
1995-1999, Hill County

 Millions of 2001 Dollars

 Change
 1995 1999 1995-1999

Trade Center $2 $4 $2
Mining and Other 3 5 2
Federal Government 9 8 -1
State Government 13 12 -1
Agriculture and Related 38 20 -18
Railroad 33 32 -1
TOTAL $98 $81 $-17

Sources: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of
Montana-Missoula. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of
Commerce.

Figure 1

Actual and Projected Percent Change in
Nonfarm Labor Income, Hill County
1997-2007

 Actual Projected

'97 -1.7
'98 4.4
'99 -1.6
'00 1.1
'01 -0.1
'02 0.5
'03 -0.1
'04 0.8
'05 0.3
'06 0.1
'07 0.1

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce;
BBER, The University of Montana-Missoula; and Research and
Analysis Bureau, Montana Department of Labor and Industry.

Figure 4

Labor Income in Basic Industries,
Hill County, 2002 [percent of total]

Trade Center 4%
Mining and Other 6%
Federal Government 9%
State Government 13%
Agriculture and Related 34%
Railroad 34%

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce.

Table 1

Change in Basic Industry Labor Income,
1995-2000, Montana

 Millions of 2001 Dollars

 Change
 1995 2000 1995-2000

Mining $327 $303 -$24
Wood and Paper Products 347 347 0
Agriculture and Related 495 396 -99
Nonresident Travel 360 429 69
Other Manufacturing 408 486 78
Transportation 447 486 39
Federal Government 983 1069 86
TOTAL $3,367 $3,516 $149

Sources: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of
Montana-Missoula. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of
Commerce.

Table 2

Index of Single-Family Home Prices,
Annual Percent Change

 Missoula Cascade Yellowstone
 County County County

2002Q3-2003Q3 7.5 4.0 7.1
2001Q3-2003Q3 8.2 4.9 6.0
1999Q3-2003Q3 6.2 3.4 5.1

 United
 Montana States

2002Q3-2003Q3 6.2 5.6
2001Q3-2003Q3 6.1 6.5
1999Q3-2003Q3 5.1 6.6

Source: U.S. Office of Federal Housing Oversight.

Table 3

Population, Montana and BEA Regions,
1990-2010

 Thousands of Persons

 Actual Projected

 1990 2000 2010

Montana 800 902 980
 West 335 400 453
 Missoula 79 95 112
 Flathead 60 75 90
 Lewis and Clark 48 56 63
 Silver Bow 34 35 34
 Ravalli 25 36 43
 Rest of West 89 103 111
 North Central 181 183 185
 Cascade 78 80 81
 Hill 18 17 16
 Fergus 12 12 12
 Rest of North Central 73 74 76
 Southeast 284 319 342
 Yellowstone 114 129 143
 Gallatin 51 68 80
 Rest of Southeast 119 122 119

 Average Annual

 Percent Change

 1990-2000 2000-2010

Montana 1.2% 0.8%
 West 1.8% 1.6%
 Missoula 1.9% 1.6%
 Flathead 2.3% 1.8%
 Lewis and Clark 1.5% 1.2%
 Silver Bow 0.3% -0.3%
 Ravalli 3.7% 1.8%
 Rest of West 1.5% 0.8%
 North Central 0.1% 0.1%
 Cascade 0.3% 0.1%
 Hill -0.6% -0.6%
 Fergus 0.0% 0.0%
 Rest of North Central 0.1% 0.3%
 Southeast 1.2% 0.7%
 Yellowstone 1.2% 1.0%
 Gallatin 2.9% 1.6%
 Rest of Southeast 0.2% -0.2%

Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of
Business and Economic Research, The University of Montana-Missoula.

Figure 4

Labor Income in Basic Industries, Montana, 2003
(percent of total)

Mining 8%
Wood and Paper 10%
Agriculture and Related 11%
Noresident Travel 12%
Selected Manufacturing 13%
Transporation 16%
Military 7%
Federal Civilian 23%

Source: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of
Montana-Missoula. Bureau of Economic analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce.

Figure 5

Actual and Projected Percent Change in Nonfarm Labor Income, Montana,
1998-2007

 Actual Projected
'98 4.9
'99 3.2
'00 3.7
'01 2.7
'02 4.6
'03 2.3
'04 3.0
'05 2.6
'06 2.1
'07 2.1

Note: Tale made from bar graph.

Source: Bureau of Economics Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce;
Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of
Montana-Missoula.


Paul E. Polzin is the director of The University of Montana's Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
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Title Annotation:Outlook
Author:Polzin, Paul E.
Publication:Montana Business Quarterly
Geographic Code:1U8MT
Date:Mar 22, 2004
Words:4737
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