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McDONNELL DOUGLAS FORECASTS AIR PASSENGER TRAFFIC GROWTH

 LONG BEACH, Calif., March 15 /PRNewswire/ -- McDonnell Douglas (NYSE: MD) forecasts world air passenger traffic will grow at a 6.7 percent annual rate over the next 20 years, which will require a fleet of more than 17,000 jetliners by the year 2011 to serve air travel needs.
 David P. Shube, deputy general manager of market development at the Douglas Aircraft division of McDonnell Douglas, says, "Between 1992 and 2011, the forecast indicates that 14,072 new passenger aircraft deliveries will be required to satisfy projected traffic levels."
 Expressed in 1992 U.S. dollars, these planes will cost just over $1 trillion.
 The company said that 9,200 aircraft, or 65 percent, will be needed to accommodate traffic growth, while nearly 4,900 of these deliveries, or about 35 percent, will be for replacement purposes.
 Shube said the open market, or the difference between the forecast of new deliveries and airlines' existing orders, will be more than 11,000 aircraft. The value of these airplanes is more than $800 billion.
 Despite the current airline recession and the expectation of future slumps from time to time in the industry, McDonnell Douglas, a leading manufacturer of commercial jetliners, sees substantial long- term growth in both air traffic and aircraft manufacturing in the next two decades. The company published its findings in its annual "Outlook for Commercial Aircraft."
 In a companion publication, called "World Economic and Traffic Outlook," McDonnell Douglas describes the recent economic environment as a "weak recession" and a "weak recovery." The recession followed the longest peacetime expansion on record, which lasted 92 months.
 The expectation for strong growth in aircraft manufacturing is based on McDonnell Douglas' forecast for moderate economic expansion in North America and Europe and strong expansion in the Asia/Pacific region.
 For the next two decades, the Asia/Pacific economies are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.1 percent, outpacing growth in other parts of the world. Rapid economic growth in Asia will provide the base for higher increases in both domestic and international air traffic growth, Shube says. This, in turn, will mean the need for expansion of airline fleets domiciled in the Asia/Pacific region.
 By 2011, the McDonnell Douglas outlook says, a fleet of approximately 17,500 aircraft will be required for commercial service. To meet this requirement, future aircraft deliveries will be almost evenly split between narrowbody and widebody models, it said. "On the basis of value, however, the dominance of widebodies becomes very apparent, with over 76 percent of the total." The company estimated that the world's active passenger jetliner fleet totaled just over 8,000 last year.
 The company forecasts that international air traffic growth from now to 2011 will be 8 percent a year. Domestic growth -- travel within each nation -- will average 5.5 percent per year, excluding the former U.S.S.R.
 Airlines domiciled in North America will continue to lead in the number of new aircraft deliveries required through 2011 with nearly 5,200 units, or 37 percent of the world total. Because of an extensive domestic travel market served by hub-and-spoke operations, North America will lead in required deliveries of narrowbodies at nearly 3,200, or about 46 percent of the world total.
 Asia/Pacific-based carriers will require the largest number of widebody aircraft, with 2,900, to serve the fast growing international routes between Asia and North America and Asia and Europe. With nearly 1,100 narrowbodies also required between 1992 and 2011, Asia/Pacific will rank second behind North America for total deliveries at almost 4,000 aircraft.
 European airlines are expected to take 23 percent of all jetliner deliveries over the next two decades. The value of these aircraft, expected to be a balance between widebodies and narrowbodies, will be about $214 billion.
 McDonnell Douglas says that new deliveries to airlines in the Middle East and Africa will be required primarily to satisfy capacity needs for medium and long range routes. New deliveries will be valued at more than $60 billion.
 Latin America will be the second fastest growing region in passenger traffic, and the fleet of aircraft is expected to expand by 134 percent. Most of the growth in new aircraft will be in short and medium range planes. The value of new aircraft will be about $50 billion.
 The aircraft outlook also forecasts jet fuel prices to remain relatively flat and stable, accounting for normal inflation. Demand for jet fuel will rise, but so will the supply, the McDonnell Douglas Outlook says. Shube warns, however, that short-term price fluctuations will remain a part of the world's oil environment.
 -0- 3/15/93
 /CONTACT: John Thom of Douglas Aircraft, 310-593-9223/
 (MD)


CO: McDonnell Douglas ST: California IN: AIR SU:

KJ -- LA013 -- 5997 03/15/93 11:35 EST
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Date:Mar 15, 1993
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