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MMS INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS GDP UP 0.8 PERCENT IN Q4

 MMS INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS GDP UP 0.8 PERCENT IN Q4
 BELMONT, Calif., Jan. 22 /PRNewswire/ -- MMS International, a worldwide financial information and market analysis firm, projects a 0.8 percent increase in real GDP during the fourth quarter, with a 2.8 percent increase in the implicit GDP deflator. The projected gain in real GDP is stronger than the consensus forecast from the MMS Dealer Survey of an unchanged GDP level. The GDP advance report is scheduled for release Jan. 29, 1992, at 8:30 a.m. EST.
 "Despite a sharp decline in consumer and business confidence in the fourth quarter, a positive GDP growth rate should be expected in the upcoming report," stated Michael R. Englund, vice president and director of research for MMS International. "The modest 0.6 percent decline seen in fourth quarter consumption should be offset by a 12 percent gain in exports during the quarter, and smaller advances in residential construction and equipment purchases."
 MMS reports that the projected 0.8 percent increase in fourth quarter GDP assumes a 0.8 percent gain in final sales and an unchanged level of business inventories. Consumption spending is projected to decline at a 0.6 percent rate, while fixed investment rises at a 2.5 percent rate, and net exports add $13 billion to fourth quarter growth. Government spending is projected to post a 1.3 percent pace of contraction. Most market forecasts assume a weaker set of figures for net exports and fixed investment.
 According to Englund, the economy should continue to grow at a sluggish but positive pace through the first quarter, with faster growth likely to emerge by the end of 1992. The economy has adopted a positive growth pace since the second quarter of 1991, but growth has been restrained by limited growth in bank loans, hikes in state and local taxes, and weak growth abroad.
 "The fourth quarter GDP report will verify that economic growth has slowed since the initial upturn in the economy in early 1991," Englund said. "Yet, the combination of a positive growth pace in the fourth quarter alongside declining interest rates, decelerating inflation, and a rising stock market should provide some floor to the plummeting confidence level that has plagued the economy since October."
 MMS International is the primary source of economic and financial information for money managers and traders worldwide. A network of 60 MMS economists and market analysts provide forecasts and analysis of the international debt, currency, and equity markets through on-line quote vendors such as Telerate, Reuters, Knight-Ridder, Bloomberg, the Bridge Information System, and the MMS PC network, ProfitFinder.
 MMS offices are located in 14 major financial centers around the world, including New York, Chicago, London, Tokyo, and Hong Kong.
 -0- 1/22/92
 /CONTACT: Zoran Lazarevic of MMS International, 800-227-6957/
 (MHP) CO: MMS International ST: California IN: PUB SU:


RM -- SF003 -- 2107 01/22/92 09:17 EST
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Date:Jan 22, 1992
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