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MARKET REFLECTS RECOVERY'S STAYING POWER, ECONOMIC FORECASTERS SAY

MARKET REFLECTS RECOVERY'S STAYING POWER, ECONOMIC FORECASTERS SAY
 CHICAGO, June 9 /PRNewswire/ -- Consumer confidence and the financial markets are holding firm, despite disappointments from the employment sector, the Federal Reserve and oil prices, as economic stirrings of early 1992 slowly metabolize into a more tangible recovery, said Wayne C. Stevens, president and chief executive of Duff & Phelps/MCM Investment Research Company.
 Stevens and Kathryn J. Lunstrum, assistant vice president, raised their prediction for 1992's real GDP growth rate to 2 percent from the previous forecast of 1.7 percent, basing their outlook on more consistent signs of improvement among economic measurements. Their forecast is part of the research company's recently issued Investment Outlook report.
 "While not all wine and roses, the latest set of economic data did imbue a deepened sense of durability to the expansion," Stevens and Lunstrum said in their report. Encouraging in this respect are the three or more consecutive months of improvement in nonfarm payrolls, consumer confidence, durable goods orders, industrial production and the leading indicators. On the downside, recent deterioration in the housing and trade sectors and grudging labor market progress affirm the economy still has its soft spots, the report says.
 Stevens and Lunstrum see the firm, but modest, economic growth persisting despite the Fed's lack of support. "Unquestionably, the most surprising development of the month was the non-event of the Federal Reserve's failure to loosen the credit reins another notch," they said. "Policy makers' reluctance to take the opportunity to provide the economy with an extra dose of insurance in an environment of unrelenting money supply weakness, mild economic growth and modest inflation remains perplexing. The Fed's reticence is but one more factor coming down on the side of modest expansion prospects."
 -0- 6/9/92
 /CONTACT: Wayne C. Stevens, 312-630-4560, or Kathryn J. Lunstrum, 312-630-4567, both of Duff & Phelps/ CO: Duff & Phelps ST: Illinois IN: FIN SU: ECO


SM -- NY032 -- 8332 06/09/92 11:32 EDT
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Publication:PR Newswire
Date:Jun 9, 1992
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