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LYNCH, JONES & RYAN'S JOHNSON REDBOOK REVISING BULLISH CHRISTMAS FORECAST UPWARD -- FIRST ANALYST TO FORECAST SHOPPING SEASON TURNAROUND

 NEW YORK, Nov. 23 ~PRNewswire~ -- Retail sales in recent months have surged ahead of early projections, causing Lynch, Jones & Ryan retailing industry analyst Ed Johnson to revise upward his early bullish forecast and now call for an 8 to 9 percent rise over last year.
 On July 27, Johnson was the first industry analyst to give a forecast for retail sales in the 1992 Christmas shopping season to register a "6 percent or better" gain over last year. "We're seeing a bonanza in the making," said Johnson, who produces the well-known Johnson Redbook service on retail sales at the brokerage firm Lynch, Jones & Ryan.
 As Johnson predicted in July, the strong showing this season is led by apparel sales, with home furnishings a close second. His original optimistic forecast was based on gains in retail sales in the first half of the year and an abrupt change in consumer psychology that caused shoppers to want something new, rather than "shopping in their closets," as they did in 1991. Johnson has 30 years' experience in tracking consumer psychology.
 Discount and off-price retailers will reap the greatest benefits of this year's Christmas shopping season comeback, Johnson said, at the expense of conventional chains and department stores. Discounters have seen their share of the retail market jump from 45 percent in 1987 to 53 percent today. "The consumer still wants quality and fashion, but at bargain prices. The Joneses next door are as broke, if not broker than you are. At cocktail parties, people are talking about how much money they save at off-price stores, discounters or warehouse clubs."
 A big winner in the growing consumer preference for off-price and discount retailers, Johnson noted, is Caldor (NYSE: CLD). His original "buy" recommendation dates from April 28, when the stock was at 13-5~8. It now trades above $27 a share. Johnson also said he does not expect the chain's recently announced purchase of six Alexander's sites having any impact on earnings until 1994.
 One of the better-known analysts covering retailing and related industries, Mr. Johnson has been publishing the Johnson Redbook of market data for more than 30 years. The report's weekly retail sales report is a de facto leading indicator of economic activity nationwide. It has also been cited by The Wall Street Journal as the "hottest new forecasting tool" for bond traders because "consumer spending accounts for about one-third of the nation's economic activity."
 Lynch, Jones & Ryan, founded in 1966, is a securities brokerage firm well known for its agency trading capabilities. The firm transacts equity and fixed-income trades for more than 1,000 institutional money management clients around the world and is a pioneer in providing independent research services to institutional investors, currently offering more than 500 research and measurement products to its clients. In addition, the firm's Plan Sponsor Services division is the largest provider of commission recapture programs, with over 400 corporate, public and Taft-Hartley fund clients.
 -0- 11~23~92
 ~CONTACT: Ed Johnson of Lynch, Jones & Ryan, 212-243-3137; or David Kogut of GCI Corporate & Financial, 212-546-2687, for Lynch, Jones & Ryan~


CO: Lynch, Jones & Ryan ST: New York IN: REA SU: ECO

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Date:Nov 23, 1992
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