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LEADING INDICATORS UP IN FEBRUARY

 LEADING INDICATORS UP IN FEBRUARY
 SAN DIEGO, April 15 /PRNewswire/ -- The University of San Diego's


Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.7 percent in February. Four components -- building permits, local stock prices, tourism and the national economy -- rose in the month, with building permits and tourism showing particularly strong gains. Negative contributions to the index in February came from an increase in initial claims for unemployment insurance and a large decrease in new defense goods orders.
 February's increase put the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 116.2, up from January's revised reading of 115.4. Data on tourism and a revision in units authorized by building permits led to a change of +1.1 percent in the index for January in place of the previously reported +1.6 percent. The index was also revised to 114.1 for December with the availability of tourism figures for that month.
 -- Index of Leading Economic Indicators: +0.7 percent
 The index for San Diego County that includes the
 components listed below (February)
 Source: University of San Diego
 -- Building Permits: +2.52 percent
 Residential units authorized by building
 permits in San Diego County, estimated
 (February)
 Source: University of San Diego
 -- Unemployment Insurance: -0.95 percent
 Initial claims for unemployment insurance
 in San Diego County, inverted (February)
 Source: Employment Development Department
 -- Stock Prices: +0.82 percent
 San Diego Stock Exchange Index (February)
 Source: San Diego Daily Transcript
 -- Tourism +1.93 percent
 An index of tourist activity in San Diego
 County (February)
 Source: San Diego Convention & Visitors Bureau
 -- New Defense Goods Orders -1.24 percent
 Manufacturers' new orders for defense products
 nationally, smoothed (February)
 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
 -- National Economy +0.99 percent
 Index of Leading Economic Indicators (February)
 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
 February's gain was the second consecutive monthly increase in the index. Economists typically view three consecutive monthly increases as a signal that a turn in the economy is near. Particularly encouraging has been the rebound in building permits from the depressed levels of 1991. This bodes well for the construction industry, which is an important sector of the San Diego economy not only for its direct impact, but for its indirect influences as well. The increase in building permits offsets the continued weakness in new defense goods orders, which have now decreased for six straight months. The monthly movement of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County for the last year is given below:
 Index Percent change
 1991 February 115.6 +1.0
 March 116.2 +0.5
 April 115.9 -0.3
 May 115.7 -0.2
 June 116.0 +0.3
 July 115.8 -0.2
 August 116.2 +0.4
 September 115.1 -0.9
 October 115.7 +0.5
 November 114.9 -0.6
 December 114.1 -0.7
 1992 January 115.4 +1.1
 February 116.2(a) +0.7
 (a) Subject to revision
 -0- 4/15/92
 /EDITOR'S NOTE: For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators or the activities of the University's Economic Research Group, contact Prof. Alan Gin, School of Business Administration, University of San Diego, Alcala Park, San Diego, CA 92110./
 /CONTACT: Prof. Alan Gin of the University of San Diego, 619-260-4883/ CO: University of San Diego ST: California IN: FIN SU:


EH-JL -- SD004 -- 8930 04/15/92 16:46 EDT
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Date:Apr 15, 1992
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