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LEADING INDICATORS UP IN APRIL

 SAN DIEGO, June 15 /PRNewswire/ -- The University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.2 percent in April. Stock prices were up moderately during the month, and building permits and initial claims for unemployment insurance were slightly positive. Initial claims for unemployment insurance have now fallen for nine consecutive months. Tourism and the outlook for the national economy were virtually unchanged, although with a positive bias. The only negative component in the index was a small decrease in help wanted advertising.
 April's increase, combined with a favorable revision of March's index (see below), continues a positive trend in the index that began in December. Unfortunately, the increases in the index have been relatively small. An analysis of April's index shows that, although five of the six components were positive, there was no strong change in any of them. Thus, there does not appear to be a lot of strength in any particular area of the local economy. As a result, the outlook for San Diego continues to be, at best, a weak recovery from the current depressed levels.
 Index of Leading Economic Indicators: +0.2 percent
 The index for San Diego County that includes the
 components listed below (April)
 Source: University of San Diego
 Building Permits: +0.35 percent
 Residential units authorized by building
 permits in San Diego County, estimated
 (April)
 Source: University of San Diego
 Unemployment Insurance: +0.46 percent
 Initial claims for unemployment insurance
 in San Diego County, inverted (April)
 Source: Employment Development Department
 Stock Prices: +0.63 percent
 San Diego Stock Exchange Index (April)
 Source: San Diego Daily Transcript
 Tourism: +0.04 percent
 An index of tourist activity in San Diego
 County (April)
 Source: San Diego Convention & Visitors Bureau
 Help Wanted Advertising: -0.34 percent
 An index of help wanted advertising in the
 San Diego Union-Tribune (April)
 Source: Greater San Diego Chamber of Commerce
 National Economy: +0.09 percent
 Index of Leading Economic Indicators (April)
 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
 April's increase put the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 115.8, up from March's revised reading of 115.6. Revised figures for various components resulted in a reading of unchanged for March instead of the previously reported change of -0.1 percent. The monthly fluctuations of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego for the last year are given below:
 Index Percent change
 1992 April 115.9 -0.1
 May 115.8 -0.1
 June 115.5 -0.2
 July 115.1 -0.3
 August 114.9 -0.2
 September 114.7 -0.2
 October 114.6 -0.1
 November 114.6 +0.0
 December 115.1 +0.4
 1993 January 115.3 +0.2
 February 115.6 +0.2
 March 115.6 +0.0
 April 115.8 +0.2
 Subject to revision
 -0- 06/15/93
 /EDITOR'S NOTE: For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators or the activities of the University's Economic Research Group, contact Prof. Alan Gin, School of Business Administration, University of San Diego, 5998 Alcala Park, San Diego, CA 92110./
 /CONTACT: Prof. Alan Gin of the University of San Diego, 619-260-4883, Fax: 619-260-4891/


CO: University of San Diego ST: California IN: FIN SU: ECO

MF-LM -- SD004 -- 2187 06/15/93 13:45 EDT
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Date:Jun 15, 1993
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