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LEADING INDICATORS FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY DOWN IN NOVEMBER

 LEADING INDICATORS FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY DOWN IN NOVEMBER
 SAN DIEGO, Jan. 20 /PRNewswire/ -- The University of San Diego's


Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County fell 0.6 percent in November. Two components -- tourism and new defense goods orders -- fell sharply in the month. The two measures of the national economy -- stock prices and the money supply -- were virtually unchanged. The only positive contribution to the index in November came from a decrease in initial claims for unemployment insurance in the county (the data on unemployment insurance claims is inverted so a decrease in claims is considered positive).
 November's decrease put the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 115.0, down from October's revised reading of 115.7. A big increase in building permits led to a revised change of +0.9 percent in the index for October in place of the previously reported +0.7 percent. The increase in the number of residential units authorized by building permits in San Diego County came after two consecutive monthly declines.
 Index of Leading Economic Indicators -0.6 percent
 The index for San Diego County that includes
 the components listed below (November).
 Source: University of San Diego.
 Building Permits +1.16 percent
 Residential units authorized by building
 permits in San Diego County (October).
 Source: Greater San Diego Chamber of Commerce.
 Unemployment Insurance +0.38 percent
 Initial claims for unemployment insurance in
 San Diego County, inverted (November).
 Source: Employment Development Department.
 Tourism -1.41 percent
 An index of tourist activity in San Diego
 County (November).
 Source: San Diego Convention & Visitors Bureau.
 New Defense Goods Orders -2.57 percent
 Manufacturers' new orders for defense
 products nationally (November).
 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
 Stock Prices -0.01 percent
 Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index (November).
 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
 Money Supply -0.01 percent
 Real money supply, M2 (November).
 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
 November's negative change continues the erratic month-to-month movement in the index for 1991. The behavior of the index indicates that there is no clear direction for the local economy for the next three to nine months. Therefore, a recovery from the current recession appears unlikely in the first half of 1992. The monthly movement of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County for the last 12 months is given below:
 Index Percent Change
 1990 December 114.9 +0.5
 1991 January 114.5 -0.4
 February 115.6 +1.0
 March 116.2 +0.5
 April 115.9 -0.3
 May 115.7 -0.2
 June 116.0 +0.3
 July 115.8 -0.2
 August 116.2 +0.3
 September 114.7 -1.3
 October 115.7 +0.9
 November 115.0(a) -0.6
 (a) Subject to revision.
 For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators or the activities of the university's Economic Research Group, contact: Professor Alan Gin, School of Business Administration, University of San Diego, Alcala Park, San Diego, CA 92110; telephone: 619-260-4883; fax: 619-260-4891.
 -0- 1/20/92
 /CONTACT: Alan Gin of University of San Diego, 619-260-4883/ CO: University of San Diego ST: California IN: SU: ECO


KJ -- SD005 -- 1447 01/20/92 13:37 EST
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