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JOB RATE PACE SUPPORTS EXPERTS' OUTLOOK FOR SLOW ECONOMIC GROWTH

 JOB RATE PACE SUPPORTS EXPERTS' OUTLOOK FOR SLOW ECONOMIC GROWTH
 CHICAGO, July 13 /PRNewswire/ -- Slowed growth in employment has led two national analysts to reaffirm their earlier outlook for a substandard economic recovery.
 "Economic activity has reverted back into the slow-to-moderate zone following the first quarter's comparatively brisk expansion," said Wayne C. Stevens, president of Chicago-based Duff & Phelps/MCM Investment Research Co., in the firm's third-quarter economic outlook.
 Stevens and Kathryn J. Lunstrum, assistant vice president, see annualized GDP growth of 1.8 percent this year, citing "the recent backsliding in employment progress" as indicative of a continued slow- paced environment. "This cycle's anemic recovery in employment is producing only weak income gains, inhibiting consumer spending and reinforcing the subpar nature of the expansion," Lunstrum said.
 The outlook said that balance sheet constraints in government, business and households would continue to restrain spending, keeping the expansion in low gear. Other drags on the economy in the second half and into 1993, Stevens and Lunstrum added, will include high consumer debt and low savings levels, a fiscal policy immobilized by the immense federal deficit and weakening in trade partner economies, particularly those of Germany and Japan.
 However, both Stevens and Lunstrum see a gradual expansionary trend persisting. Moderately improved consumer demand and a mild pickup in the housing sector should be augmented by firming in business capital spending and the continued slow recovery of corporate profits, they said. Also, several quarters of flat or declining inventories have brought the nonfarm inventory-to-sales ratio to a 20-year low, "suggesting that future demand will rapidly translate into production growth."
 -0- 7/13/92
 /EDITOR'S NOTE: Copy of the report available./
 /CONTACT: Wayne C. Stevens, president, 312-630-4560, Kathryn J. Lunstrum, assistant vice president, 312-630-4567, or Jackie Bitowt, 312- 263-2610, all of Duff & Phelps/MCM/ CO: Duff & Phelps ST: Illinois IN: FIN SU: ECO


KD -- NY027 -- 8537 07/13/92 10:11 EDT
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Date:Jul 13, 1992
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