Introductory remarks for the Contemporary Economic Policy special section on "monetary policy issues of new EU-member and candidate countries".
According to the EU Accession Treaty, all the NMSs are required to adopt the euro at some stage. However, the timing of the adoption of the euro is conditional on the fulfillment the Maastricht Convergence Criteria. Hence, while there is a presumption regarding the euro conversion date that is contained in government programs, there remains some uncertainty regarding that date. Furthermore, within the constraints of the EU Treaty requirement of stability-oriented monetary policies, EU member countries that have not yet adopted the euro have some degree of freedom regarding the monetary policy strategy in the period up to the introduction of the euro. Finally, historical legacies such as a high degree of dollarization have an important impact on monetary policy at the present stage.
Csajbok and Rezessy (C & R) deal with the first of the issues noted above from a Hungarian (financial market) perspective. Using an uncovered interest rate parity framework, the authors study the potential impact of a shift in market expectations regarding a country's euro area entry date on long-term yields and the spot exchange rate. By comparing implied forward interest rates, which are obtained from zero-coupon yield curves and the euro area, C & R are able to deduce the markets expectations for Hungary's euro conversion date. They conclude that an outward revision of the presumed euro conversion date, say, due to weaker economic fundamentals, such as higher budget deficits, or a decline in the credibility of the convergence process in general will immediately be reflected in the long-term yields and in a depreciation of the exchange rate. As a tentative policy conclusion it emerges that the NMSs should only join the exchange rate mechanism II (ERM II) once a credible (Maastricht) convergence process is on track and the presumed euro adoption date is credible.
While seven of the 10 NMSs already decided to enter the ERM II, which is a requirement for the eventual adoption of the euro under the Maastricht Economic Convergence Criteria, the remaining three NMSs (Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland), for the time being, opted for a floating exchange rate regime, anchored by inflation targeting, relying on an inflation target that is at or near the price stability definition of the European System of Central Banks ("below but close to 2 percent").
The second article of this special section, written by Gersl and Holub (G & H), analyzes the role and effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions and their consistency with the inflation-targeting framework in the Czech Republic. G & H first show useful stylized facts. In order to estimate the effectiveness of interventions, they combine an exchange rate equation and a central bank reaction function. They conclude that both the stylized facts and the econometric estimation do lead to clear-cut answers. They find some evidence that interventions had some statistically significant impact on the exchange rate of the Czech koruna and its volatility. However, the impact was economically marginal. Finally, G & H devise three criteria by which they could judge the consistency of interventions with the inflation-targeting framework (target, regime, and procedural consistency). The authors conclude, by the evidence available, that in the observation period 1998-2002 the foreign exchange interventions undertaken by the Czech National Bank did not conflict with its inflation target.
The third article by Sosic and Kraft (S & K) examines the constraints on monetary policy placed on a small, advanced transitional economy, with a history of a very high degree of dollarization and its persistence since Croatia's independence in 1992. Also note that Croatia has already begun membership negotiations with the EU. As a consequence, the national currency, the kuna, will presumably disappear again within a decade. S & K carefully trace and analyze foreign exchange use in Croatia and the country's monetary policy framework. As economic agents react swiftly and substantially to foreign exchange fluctuations and banks are exposed to very significant foreign exchange exposure, the authors conclude that under this setting, monetary policy needs to focus on safeguarding financial stability and also on the smoothing of exchange rate fluctuations.
The set of articles offer important insights into the challenges for monetary policy in the NMSs and candidate countries for EU accession. At the same time, the topics are also relevant for other countries. Consequently, we strongly recommend readers of the Contemporary Economic Policy take an interest in them.
Wilfrid Laurier University
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|Author:||Hochreiter, Eduard; Siklos, Pierre|
|Publication:||Contemporary Economic Policy|
|Date:||Oct 1, 2006|
|Previous Article:||Hungary's eurozone entry date: what do the markets think and what if they change their minds?|
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