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Industrial employment.

Goods and services are produced in offices, factories, stores, and other work places, each of which is classified into an industry based on the type of goods and services produced. For example, all factories assembling cars are in the automobile manufacturing industry and all supermarkets are in the grocery store industry.

Some industries employ large numbers of workers, such as eating and drinking places, which had more than 7 million workers in 1994. In contrast, some industries are quite small; manufacturers of watches, clocks, watch cases, and parts employed fewer than 9,000 workers in 1994.

BLS develops projections of employment for 260 industries or industry groups that make up the economy as a whole. Employment growth rates vary among industries; consequently, the structure of industrial employment will change over the 1994-2005 period.

Several factors affect the growth of employment in an industry. Changes in demand for an industry's products (shown in the chart on page 7 on projected growth for different categories of the GDP) are the most important cause of differences in employment growth rates among industries. Technological change also has an impact. For example, the use of automated equipment in manufacturing plants enables more goods to be produced with fewer workers. Changes in business practices also have an impact on employment. When businesses use contractors or temporary help supply services, they reduce their employment total, although employment rises for contractors and the temporary help supply services industry.

Employment will continue to increase over the 1994-2005 period...

...although the rate of growth will be much slower than during the previous 11 years.

Employment in the service-producing sector will continue to increase, but it will decline in the goods-producing sector.

Wage and salary workers in the service-producing sector will increase by 17.7 million from 1994 to 2005.

Significant differences in growth are expected among the industry divisions comprising the growing service-producing sector.

Services is the only division that will increase faster than average. All divisions will fare worse than in the past.

The services division of the service-producing sector will account for more than 80 percent of the new jobs.

Retail trade also will continue to be a major source of employment growth, with an increase of 2.7 million wage and salary jobs.

However, self-employed workers in retail trade will continue to decline as small independent retail establishments have difficulty competing with large establishments and retail chains.

Employment in transportation, communications, and utilities is projected to increase 7 percent, slower than average.

Half of the growth will be in trucking and warehousing.

Employment in the finance, insurance, and real estate division is projected to increase in all industries except depository institutions; their employment growth will be dampened as banks consolidate and restructure.

Wholesale trade is expected to grow slowly, and growth rates will be very similar among the industries making up this division.

Business consolidation and direct selling of goods from manufacturers to retail establishments will lower growth compared to that of recent years.

State and local government excluding education and hospitals will increase by 450,000 jobs.

Much of the projected increase is related to law enforcement.

The Federal Government is projected to decline by more than 200,000 jobs, with much of the decline in defense-related jobs.

Total employment in all divisions in the goods-producing sector will decline, except for construction.

However, wage and salary employment will increase in the agriculture., forestry, and fishing division, as well as in construction.

Employment is projected to grow in construction, but at a slower rate than during the previous 11 years.

Growth will slow because of significant overbuilding of office buildings and some other types of construction during the earlier period.

Construction is the only industry division in which the numerical growth of self-employed workers will match that of wage and salary workers.

Employment in manufacturing is projected to decline.

In the agriculture, forestry, and fishing division, wage and salary workers are projected to increase in number because of the growth of lawn and garden service employment in agricultural services.

Self-employed workers will continue to decline in number because of the decrease in the number of small farms.

Mining, the smallest industry division, is projected to decline by 162,000 wage and salary jobs, led by a decline of nearly 100,000 jobs in oil and gas extraction.

The 20 fastest growing industries are in the service-producing sector, and the top 11 are in the services division.

Many of these fast growing industries are also among the 20 industries that have the largest projected numerical increase in jobs over the 1994-2005 period.

Industries with the largest increase in jobs

Employment growth will be very concentrated by industry.

Of the 260 industries that make up the economy in BLS's projection models, 8 will account for half of the growth in wage and salary jobs and these 20 will account for almost 80 percent of the growth.
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Title Annotation:forecasts
Publication:Occupational Outlook Quarterly
Date:Sep 22, 1995
Words:817
Previous Article:Labor force.
Next Article:Occupational employment.
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