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IRSG says consumption decline will soon be reversed. (Market Focus).

The International Rubber Study Group (IRSG) said there are signs that the declining trend in rubber consumption will soon be reversed. The group says that consumption fell for 12 consecutive months up to January 2002, and it was off at an annual rate of 3.8% in January. But the IRSG feels that North America has approached a trough in consumption while other regions either have growth rates that are still slipping or declining rates that are widening. The group says that while the rate of decline in NR consumption has been slightly larger than the fall off in uptake of SR, it would appear that NR consumption decline has bottomed out, but not yet for SR.

Of all the regions, consumption in North America fell sharpest in 2001, but it was also the first region to reach its trough, the group said. The rate of decline in North America improved in December for the first time for more than a year since peaking in October 2000.

In other regions, only the other Europe category showed a continued fall in growth rates. In Latin America, the European Union, Africa and Asia/ Pacific regions, the declining rates continued to intensify. Latin America had the sharpest fall in recent months according to the IRSG, with an aggregate annual rate of decline reaching 9.1% in January, 2002.

The IRSG figures show that China had the best growth in 2001 with a consumption increase of 215,000 mt.
World rubber consumption ('000 metric tons)

 2000 2000 2000 2001 2001 2001
 NR SR total NR SR total

Canada 150 233 383 128 223 351
U.S.A. 1,191 2,189 3,380 1,021 1,953 2,974

Brazil 210 320 530 186 310 496
Mexico 97 160 357 75 140 215
Other L. America 129 213 342 121 197 318

Belgium 43 125 168 41 120 161
France 309 482 790 256 495 751
Germany 249 639 888 255 623 878
Italy 133 292 425 138 272 410
Spain 172 278 450 187 263 450
U.K. 131 194 325 129 210 339
Other E.U. 114 371 485 116 363 479

Belarus 10 38 48 10 37 47
Czech Rep. 46 94 140 44 92 136
Poland 54 117 171 50 109 159
Romania 12 29 41 14 27 41
Russian Fed. 36 498 533 31 558 589
Turkey 86 100 186 83 102 185
Ukraine 12 60 72 12 58 70
Other Europe 69 168 237 59 160 219

South Africa 59 61 120 55 52 107
Other Africa 73 58 131 70 59 129

Australia 38 56 94 29 54 83
China 1,080 1,455 2,535 1,185 1,565 2,750
India 638 171 809 631 170 801
Indonesia 132 142 274 124 136 260
Japan 752 1,138 1,889 723 1,072 1,794
Rep. of Korea 331 382 713 334 363 697
Malaysia 345 95 440 329 81 410
Taiwan 97 260 357 91 218 309
Thailand 243 144 387 223 140 363
Other Asia 242 198 440 240 198 438

Grand total 7,320 10,800 18,120 7,027 10,468 17,494

 2002 2002 2002 Per capita consumption
 NR SR total (kg/person)
 1960 2000

Canada 128 222 350 5.2 12.5
U.S.A. 1,021 1,957 2,978 8.8 11.9

Brazil 182 307 489 0.9 3.3
Mexico 73 139 212 1.1 2.6
Other L. America 119 193 312 1.3 2.4

Belgium 40 120 160 2.9 15.7
France 254 489 744 4.8 13.4
Germany 259 620 879 4.6 10.8
Italy 138 271 409 2.7 7.4
Spain 184 258 442 1.0 11.4
U.K. 130 211 341 5.7 5.4
Other E.U. 117 362 479 0.7 3.8

Belarus 10 37 47 -- 4.7
Czech Rep. 44 92 136 -- 13.6
Poland 50 109 159 2.0 4.4
Romania 14 27 40 1.0 1.8
Russian Fed. 31 553 584 2.8 3.7
Turkey 82 102 184 0.3 2.8
Ukraine 12 58 70 -- 1.5
Other Europe 59 160 219 2.4 3.5

South Africa 54 52 106 2.0 2.7
Other Africa 69 59 128 0.1 0.7

Australia 28 55 83 5.9 4.9
China 1,190 1,570 2,760 0.2 2.0
India 628 170 798 0.1 0.8
Indonesia 122 134 256 0.2 1.3
Japan 720 1,066 1,785 2.4 14.9
Rep. of Korea 332 362 694 0.5 15.1
Malaysia 329 80 409 0.9 18.9
Taiwan 93 217 310 0.3 13.7
Thailand 221 139 360 0.0 6.2
Other Asia 239 201 440 0.4 2.6

Grand total 7,007 10,435 17,441 1.4 2.9

2002 figures are a moving annual total to January 2002

Source: IRSG
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Title Annotation:International Rubber Study Group
Comment:IRSG says consumption decline will soon be reversed. (Market Focus).(International Rubber Study Group)
Publication:Rubber World
Article Type:Brief Article
Geographic Code:00WOR
Date:Mar 1, 2002
Words:842
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